Many of the hardcore Deaniacs, including myself, are planning to vote for the Governor anyway. Governor Dean has said that he is looking for "progressive delegates" to go to Boston for him.
How likely is it that he'd get delegates? For answers, we look to the late 2000 primaries.
By March 14, both parties had selected presumptive nominees, Bush and Gore, with majorities or near-majorities of the available delegates. We'll look at the primary results starting in April, and see what we find. All vote totals gathered from Dave Leip's US Elections Atlas.
Republicans:
April 4, Pennsylvania: Bush 73, McCain 23. Using Dems' 2004 delegate figures and 15% qualifying rule, that give Bush 115 delegates, McCain 36.
Wisconsin: Bush 69%, McCain 18% (Bush 57, McCain 15)
April 25, Minnesota caucuses: full results unavailable, Bush between 60 and 70%.
May 2, DC caucuses: no results available.
Indiana: Bush 81%, McCain 19% (Bush 54, McCain 13)
North Carolina: Bush 79%, McCain 11% (Bush 90)
May 9, Nebraska: Bush 78%, McCain 15% (Bush 20, McCain 4)
West Virginia: Bush 79%, McCain 13% (Bush 28)
May 16, Oregon: Bush 84%, Keyes 13% (Bush 46)
May 19-20, Alaska, Hawaii, Kentucky: results not available
May 23, Arkansas: Bush 80%, Keyes 20% (Bush 29, Keyes 7)
Idaho: Bush 73%, Keyes 19% (Bush 14, Keyes 4)
May 25, Nevada: Results not available
June 6, Alabama: Bush 84%, Keyes 12% (Bush 54)
Montana: Bush 78%, Keyes 18% (Bush 12, Keyes 3)
New Jersey: Bush 84%, Keyes 16% (Bush 89, Keyes 18)
New Mexico: Bush 83%, McCain 10% (Bush 22)
South Dakota: Bush 78%, McCain 14% (Bush 14)
Total delegates: Bush 624, McCain and Keyes 100, with several states missing.
