Here's some
background:
In the last three Presidential elections, the Dem/GOP share of the total Hispanic electorate has gone from 72%-21% to 62%-35% to 59%-40%. This extraordinary shift has made the Hispanic vote the fastest growing and perhaps the most volatile swing electorate in American politics.
Much of the movement towards the Republicans at a national level has come with Spanish language-dominant Hispanic voters. According to an analysis done by NDN and Bendixen and Associates, English-dominant Hispanics have stayed reliably Democratic, holding throughout this time at about a 2:1 ratio (2004: 65%-34%). The movement towards Bush has come from the Spanish-dominant, as they have gone from 82%-18% Clinton-Dole in 1996 to 52%-48% Kerry-Bush, while increasing from 30% of the Hispanic electorate in 1996 to 48% in 2004.
There's a reason that Bush and Rove are fighting the xenophobes in their own party over immigration -- they see recent immigrants as one of the biggest growth markets for the Republican Party.
So, now on to the NDN poll results:
n 2004 Kerry beat Bush 59%-40% with all Hispanics, and 52%-48% with those Spanish-dominant. In this survey Hispanics confirmed the closeness of the 2004 result. When asked who "did you vote for in 2004?" the result came back 38%-36% Kerry-Bush.
When asked how they would vote if the Presidential election were held today, this group gives Democrats a remarkable 36-point advantage (59%-23%). For Republicans this is a dramatic drop from the 52%-48% Kerry-Bush result with the Spanish-speaking sub-group in 2004.
Bush's standing with this group has plummeted. In the 2004 cycle, Bush regularly received a 60% favorable rating from Hispanics. In our survey this was reversed, as 38% see him favorably, 58% unfavorably, with 40% very unfavorable towards the President.
Democrats have a very significant advantage in favorability, with a 65%-25% favorable/ unfavorable result. Republicans come in at 41%-51% favorable/unfavorable. For the first time in any Hispanic poll we've seen, The Republican Party is seen more favorably than Bush. It is would not be a stretch to now say that President Bush has become a drag on the Republican Party with Hispanics [...]
On the issue of greatest concern to the Hispanic community as a whole - immigration reform - only 15% believe that the current debate will make it more likely they vote Republican. Overall, the number identifying immigration and discrimination as major issues have increased substantially from previous years.
So they're not happy with Republicans. What about Democrats?
While Democrats have made modest gains with this group, growing from 52% in 2004 to 59%, most of the movement this year has been away from Bush and the Republicans and not towards Democrats.
In a detailed issue battery, while consistently far ahead of Republicans, Democrats regularly under perform their 59% electoral performance and 65% Party favorability. This indicates that while Democrats are well-regarded by this electorate, they are not well defined.
For example, let's look at immigration reform. Despite the strong advocacy of Senator Harry Reid and other Democrats for comprehensive immigration reform and the wide coverage of the Republican efforts to deport undocumented Hispanic from the country, more Hispanics say that the immigration debate will not effect how they will vote this November - 41% - than say that that it makes it more likely they will vote Democratic - 36%.