Why Dean is not McGovern

Or, for that matter, why no candidate is McGovern:

We have too solid an electoral base.

These states went for Gore by more than 10% in 2000:  HI, CA, IL, MD, DE, DC, NJ, NY, CT, MA, RI.  That's 165 electoral votes, 105 short of victory.  168 if you count VT, which went for Gore by 9.97% (and I think we can count on carrying Vermont!).

Does anybody really see any of those states going GOP in 2004?

We need to nip in the bud the idea that Bush is going to roll to a huge victory.  He just isn't.  There are too many people in the Blue states.