It's odd to be doing another of these only three days after the last, but we've had such a flurry of polls that it seemed worth making an update. Polls in states like Arizona and Iowa both suggest big changes from the previous values. So, here we go with another....
Notes: the intent of this exercise is to determine the delegate count at the end of the large group of primaries on February 3. Totals at this point should go a long way toward determining which candidates might have the momentum and money to survive until Super Tuesday. Where possible, I've used the latest polling data in determining how the delegates are distributed. Democratic party rules dictate that candidates are distributed proportionately based on popular vote. However, this doesn't mean there's a general 1-1 mapping of polling percentage to delegate percentage. Historical votes tend to be a little more lopsided than pre-election polls would indicate. Also, states that use a caucus process (like Iowa) usually have a "floor" of 15%. This doesn't prevent candidates polling less than this number from acquiring delegates, but does mean that those candidates have to have locally heavy representation to get on the board. In states where polling is old, I've swallowed my assumptions and put the numbers up pretty much as the old polls would dictate. However, we have new polls from several states this week, so the number should reflect the current thinking.
In some few states, I have no polling information. In these cases, I've tried to extrapolate from past trends or neighboring states. For example, I made North Dakota over in the image of Iowa, but added a dash of Clark to represent the historically more conservative nature of North Dakota voters.
Iowa, 45 delegates+
Gephardt 31
Dean 22
Kerry 02
New Hampshire, 22 delegates
Dean 10
Kerry 08
Clark 03
Lieberman 01
Arizona, 55 Delegates
Dean 23
Clark 18
Kerry 07
Lieberman 07
Delaware, 15 delegates#
Dean 10
Kerry 05
Missouri, 74 delegates#
Gephardt 36
Dean 22
Kerry 10
Lieberman 08
New Mexico, 26 delegates+
Dean 16
Clark 10
North Dakota, 14 delegates#+
Gephardt 06
Dean 06
Clark 02
Oklahoma, 40 delegates#
Gephardt 18
Dean 15
Kerry 07
South Carolina, 45 delegates
Edwards 08
Gephardt 07
Clark 07
Lieberman 06
Dean 05
Sharpton 05
Kerry 04
Braun 03
Predicted Total after 3 February
Dean 129
Gephardt 098
Kerry 043
Clark 040
Lieberman 022
Edwards 008
Sharpton 005
Braun 003
+caucus state
# based on very old polls or a lot of guesswork
#+ both of the above
The results of the latest changes show Dean still holding the top spot at this critical point. A resurgent Gephardt captures additional delegates in Iowa, but Dean's improvements in Arizona more than make up for the difference. With newer polling, Clark begins to show a more significant position on the charts. Lieberman takes losses in Arizona and sinks down the list while Edwards continues with only a smidgen of votes.