With the election of Andrew Dinniman to the 19th Senate Seat in this May's Special Election, Democrats hold 21 out of 50 seats in the PA Senate. That puts us 5 seats away from a majority. Taking the PA legislature is vital to the federal Democrats since the legislature controls Pennsylvania's redistricting. The 2001 redistricting has left Democrats with 7 out of 19 House seats in a "blue" state with more than 50% Democrats. If Democrats are in charge of redistricting or at least have a voice in redistricting, we can influence what Pennsylvania's 18 districts look like after 2010.
Update:
It turns out that as long as Rendell and CBK are reelected in November, Democrats would only need 4 seats to take control of the Senate since the LG can cast a tie-breaking vote on such matters. See my comment below.
(More after the flip)
Only the even-numbered districts are up for election this year. Of those 25 seats, 10 are held by Democrats and 15 by Republicans. First, some good news. Of the 10 Democratic-held seats, only 3 are being contested by Republican candidates. So, we only need to play defense in three seats. Of the 15 Republican seats up for election, Democrats left only 1 seat uncontested. So, we've got 14 chances to try to get to 5.
Here are the maps of the Senate districts.
Statewide Map (The numbers are somewhat unclear You can see the original here):
This map shows the usual pattern for Democrats statewide. Democrats do well in Southwest Pennsylvania, the Johnstown area and north of there, the Lackawanna Valley, the Lehigh Valley. Andrew Dinniman's 19th District is a welcome addition in the outer Philadelphia suburbs.
10th (Bucks County, R-open): Chris Serpico beat Robin Rosenthal for the Democratic ballot. He will face Chuck McIlhinney, currently a State Rep. McIlhinney voted against the pay-raise.
14th (Lackawanna Valley, D): Raphael Musto is unopposed
16th (Lehigh Valley, R-Inc): Former US Senate candidate Richard Orloski is the Democratic candidate to face Pat Browne.
18th (Lehigh Valley, D): Democratic incumbent Lisa Boscola faces Republican Bonnie Dodge. Boscola voted against the pay-raise and got more than twice as many votes as her opponent in the primary. She should be safe.
20th (Rural NE PA, R-open): Democrat Robert McNamara faces Republican primary winner Lisa Baker. A difficult seat for Democrats given the demographics of rural NE PA.
22nd (Lackawanna County, D-Inc): Democrat Robert Mellows is unopposed
24th (Parts of Bucks, Northhamp., Lehigh, and Mont., R-Inc): Democrat David Wilsey takes on Incumbent Republican Robert Wonderling. Wonderline voted against the pay-raise.
28th (York County R-Inc): Democrat James Kurish opposes incumbent Republican Mike Waugh. Waugh voted against the pay-raise. Tough district for a Democrat to win.
30th (Bedford, Blair, Huntington, Fulton, R-open): Democrat Greg Morris takes on Republican Primary winner John Eichelberger. Eichelberger defeated Robert Jubelirer in one of the Republican Primary's biggest upsets. This is a very conservative district. Morris' chances aren't good.
32nd (Fayette and Somerset, D-Inc): Incumbent Democrat Richard Kasunic is opposed by Republican Ronald Gallo. He should win handily. Somerset County is 50/50 Democrats and Republicans, but Fayette County is strongly Democratic and accounts for 2/3s of the voters in the district. Kasunic voted against the pay-raise.
34th (Centre, Juniata, Mifflin, Perry, R-Inc): Incumbent Republican Jake Corman is opposed by Democrat Jon Eich. This is a moderately Republican district, but Corman voted for the pay-raise. Corman was opposed in the Republican Primary and won with about 60% of the vote. Whether Eich can pull this off will depend on the level of disaffection in the district. Eich pulled in a respectable 9,437 in an uncontested primary.
44th (Parts of Chester, Montgomery, Berks, R-Inc): Incumbent Republican John Rafferty is faced by Democrat Dan Weand. Rafferty voted against the pay-raise. Difficult district for a Democrat, but if Dinniman won the nearby 19th, then anything is possible.
46th (Washington, Greene, D-Inc): Democrat Barry Stout is unopposed.
48th (Lancaster, Lebanon, R-open): Democrat John Liss faces Republican newcomer Mike Folmer. This is probably the most conservative district in the state. Liss doesn't stand a chance.
50th (Mercer, Crawford, part of Lawrence, R-Inc): Democrat Art Allen faces Republican incumbent Rob Robbins. This is a slightly Republican district, but Allen trump card is Robbins' vote for the pay-raise. Allen should do well in moderately Democratic Mercer and he is a lifelong Crawford County resident.
Allegheny County and Pittsburgh Maps:
Of the three seats here, 38 (D), 40 (R), and 42 (D), none are contested.
Southeast Region Map:
6th (Bucks, R-Inc): Democrat Paul Lang faces Republican incumbent Robert Tomlinson. Tomlinson voted against the pay-raise.
12th (Montgomery, R-Inc): Democrat Jeff Albert faces Republican incumbent Stewart Greenleaf. Greenleaf voted for the pay-raise. He handily defeated his Republican primary opponent though and got almost twice as many votes as Albert.
26th (Delaware, R-Inc): Democrat Michael Farrell faces Republican incumbent Edwin Erickson. Erickson voted for the pay-raise.
Philadelphia Map:
Now that's what I like. Democrats are 7 for 7 in Philly. Of the races up this year, 2nd, 4th, and 8th, only the 2nd is being contested.
2nd (Philadelphia, D-Inc): Christine Tartagione is opposed by Republican Christopher Morris. Tartagione voted for the pay-raise, but in this district she should be able to get away with it. She got about five times as many votes in the primary as Morris.
So, that's all of the Senate races this year. If you live in or near one of the contested races, please help out if you can. If the Democrats can win the Senate either this year or in 2008, it will pay big dividends not just in the state but also when 2010 comes around and we guarantee that a Republican rather than a Democrat loses his seat in Congress
