OMG! Iowa Zogby!?! Simmer Down Now

Guys...

I can't help myself a little irked with some misinterpretation of the Zogby numbers showing an alleged Kerry lead in Iowa on Monday night.

First, insofar as I can tell, the sample size is puny. Zogby elaborates on this here:

Of course, one night's sample is not statistically very reliable. Zogby's three-night rolling track includes only 501 respondents, and the error margin on a one-night sample of 170 voters is on the order of plus or minus 10 percent; that's why he reports the three-night average, on which the error margin is plus or minus 4.5 percent.

Moreover, this MOE quote is not "the whole story." Read this wonderful diary entry.

I'm not denying the possibility that Iowa is now a virtual dead-heat... it probably is (and anyone who tells you it isn't going to be a very close results is channeling Comical Ali). But some recent diary entries have suggested or implied that the Zogby tracking poll shows Dean losing.

Considering a vast stack of polling has shown Dean with a fairly consistent bloc of support in Iowa (somewhere between 25 and 35 percent) for some length of time, I think it's somewhat dangerous to suggest that there has been a massive loss of support for Dean.