As I mentioned in
my last diary, my name is Tim McCann and I'm the Operations Director for Chris Bell's exploratory committee as he looks at a run for Governor of Texas. For those unfamiliar with Texas politics, Chris is a former Houston City Councilman and U.S. Congressman who is probably best known for filing the formal ethics complaint against Tom DeLay in the House Ethics Committee. First off, let me thank those who took the time to comment or to share their thoughts with me via email. There are a few points I wanted to hit quickly as a follow up to that post. For convenience sake I'll do it as a Q & A, paraphrasing some of the questions you've been asking us.
Q.) How has the exploratory effort fared so far? What kind of response has Chris been getting, and is there a timetable for ending the explorations and launching a full campaign?
The most encouraging aspect of the exploratory campaign so far has been the remarkably positive and energetic response Chris has received from the grassroots community in Texas. One of our fears as we started out was that the string of disappointments suffered by Texas Democrats in recent years (Sanchez's lackluster '02 campaign, the devastating redistricting process, Bush's re-election) would have produced a demoralized Democratic base that simply wouldn't be capable of answering the bell for the next round so quickly. To some extent this may be true at the top levels of the old power structure, where some traditional Democratic power brokers are rumored to be
flirting with the GOP primary. But the unflagging energy of the grassroots community and their wholehearted embrace of Chris have been quite honestly surprising. Of course, it didn't hurt that Al Franken introduced Chris to his national radio audience as "a real hero to a lot of Democrats," or that political reporters here in TX have taken to referring to Chris as the "nemesis of Perry pal Tom DeLay."
As for a timetable, Chris mentioned in a recent Austin American-Statesman interview that the decision will be made once we've answered some fundamental questions on viability. The grassroots is where the true energy resides among Texas Democrats, so the viability of any statewide campaign in Texas today hinges on receiving a significant commitment from that grassroots in terms of fundraising and organizing. The reaction to date has been promising, but our efforts to engage the vibrant activist community in Texas continue.
Q.) Why is Chris the right guy for this race? Couldn't we find a Dem with more experience or better statewide name ID?
Well, for starters, keep in mind that in a state like Texas where Dems haven't won a statewide office since '94, its not necessarily a bad idea to start looking for some new faces rather than just recycling the same statewide candidates for yet another cycle. There's a strong feeling among the rank-and-file that this party needs to be reinvigorated with new leaders who have something new to say. And Chris's strong base in Houston gives him a leg up over other potential candidates; since '97, Chris has represented all or part of Houston for six of those years, and experience shows us that a Democrat can't win statewide without a strong showing in Harris County.
But more importantly, there isn't a candidate in the state, or indeed the country, who is better suited for the issue environment that has emerged in recent months. As Tom DeLay's legal and political troubles continue to mount, there has been plenty of discussion of strategies to tie him around the neck of vulnerable Republicans and use him as a wedge issue to win back Republican leaning swing voters outraged by Republican ethics abuses. The strategy isn't being restricted to House races; the DSCC and DGA are also talking about putting the GOP ethics gap at the center of their national message. Could there be a candidate anywhere in the country better suited to deliver this message than Chris Bell, the only member of Congress who had the courage to break the 7-year ethics truce and take a formal stand against Tom DeLay's abuses?
Its important to remember that the ethical shortcomings of the Texas Republican establishment hardly end with Tom DeLay and his TRMPAC conspirators. As Chris is fond of saying, it certainly appears sometimes as if Gov. Perry has been taking his ethics lessons from DeLay. Cronyism and conflicts of interest have cast a shadow over his multi-billion superhighway plan; there have been concerns raised about top aides cycling between the governor's office and big-money lobbying gigs; and now, his allies in the state House are actually trying to give themselves immunity from prosecution for campaign finance violations. No, I'm not joking. The state legislature is literally in the process of writing itself a get-out-of-jail-free card, without so much as a peep out of Perry's office. If there was an ethics truce in Washington, then there is a wholesale ethics surrender in Austin. And we're not going to find a Democrat anywhere better suited than Chris Bell to capitalize on the growing public outrage that has resulted.
Q.) What's your take on the past week's intra-party GOP fireworks?
That was fun to watch, wasn't it? Turns out Kay Bailey Hutchison is actually Hillary Clinton's best friend, didn't you know? Rick Perry has video to prove it. Of course, the Perry camp flat denied being the ones behind the video, at least until the next day when they proudly took credit. Just as the KBH camp took pride in pointing out that Perry has his own membership card to the Hillary Fan Club. And when you think it can't get more bizarre, there's the part about KBH aides cultivating alter egos on talk radio shows and allegedly threatening Perry loyalists. Good times.
And what is Team Perry's official comment on the week's shenanigans? "You ain't seen nothing yet." (Highly recommended link)
Let's hope we haven't. We've been saying from the start that prospect of a bitter and divisive GOP primary ought to give pause to anyone who thinks Democrats have no chance next year. This primary will do more than just produce a weakened and bloodied nominee; it will also drive a huge wedge between moderates and conservatives within the Texas Republican Party. Perry is certainly vulnerable--his sub-50 job approval ratings ought to be a clear indicator of this---but he remains very popular among the conservative idealouge base, and he ought to be able to hold off Sen. Hutchison in the primary so long as he tends to that base. You can hardly imagine the kind of invective that will be hurled at her as Perry tries to make her unpalatable to conservatives. Perry's camp will be the first to tell you that this week's sniping won't even compare to the outright war that is coming.
One of the campaigns that we've made a habit out of referencing is Gov. Sebelius's 2002 win in Kansas, a state even more socially conservative than Texas. How does a Democrat win in a state that Red? By exploiting the rift between the moderate and conservative wings of the state Republican Party. In Kansas, that rift is ledgendary; Campaigns and Elections Magazine has even described Kansas as a virtual 3-party state, with the warring factions of the state GOP each running their own candidates, agendas, and organizations. Things aren't that bad yet in Texas, but a primary featuring this level of vitriol would make them so. Throw in ongoing intra-party feuds over school funding, taxation, gambling, and censorship of textbooks, and you have the potential for a full-fledged revolt among moderate Republicans and GOP-leaning independents mirroring the swell that powered Sebelius to victory in Kansas.
Q.) What about Kinky?
Just about everyone I talk to about the race eventually brings up this question, as much for their own amusement as for their curiosity about how the country-singer-turned-mystery author will impact the race. And of course, it remains to be seen what kind of campaign he will run and how seriously he's going to pursue this race. It's worth mentioning that his first real foray into policy didn't go over that well with Democrats who were looking at him as a potential Perry alternative.
Some of the folks who've written me have expressed concern that if Kinky does get on the ballot, he'll ensure Rick Perry's re-election by splitting the anti-Perry vote. We like to point out historically, this tends not to be the case (Think Clinton/Bush/Perot in '92 or Henry/Largent/Richardson in the '02 OK GOV race), and we're actually pretty excited at the prospect of making this a 3-way race.
Allow me to draw parallels to that '02 Oklahoma race in order to explain what I mean. When Richardson launched his 3rd party bid, there were a number of consequences that worked to Brad Henry's favor and far outweighed the potential to split the protest vote. First among these was the manner in which Richardson upset the partisan dynamic in a way that subtly made both voters and the press pay more attention to the substance of each candidate in the race rather than just to the letter after their name. It was no longer a simple D-versus-R calculation, as partisanship became somewhat de-emphasized by the presence of a credible 3rd party option. And any time you're able to de-emphasize partisanship in a state as Red as Oklahoma, it works to the Democrats' advantage.
Second was the manner in which Richardson freed up Brad Henry to run the campaign he wanted. Richardson ran as the attack dog, relentlessly hammering Largent on multiple issue fronts. This freed Henry to introduce himself to the voters in a relatively positive light and position himself opposite Largent without getting dirt on his own hands.
Third was the fact that Richardson lowered the bar that the winner needed to clear. In states this red, it is hard for a Democrat to put together a roadmap to 50-percent-plus-one. It is far easier to imagine scenarios in which a Democrat can get 45-48 percent. If a strong third party candidate manages to approach the high single digits, suddenly that 45-48 percent is good enough for a W. Brad Henry managed only 43%, but that got the job done thanks to Richardson's 13% showing.
I'm well past the 1500 word point so I'll call it a day for now. Have at it; I'm eager to hear your reaction. I'll answer some more of your questions in another diary later this week. And in closing, I want to encourage everyone to visit Chris's website at www.ChrisBell.com and sign up for Chris's email updates. That's the best way to stay informed about this race.
