New Hampshire has shifted over the last 15 years from a reliable GOP state in Presidential elections to a lean-GOP state. It's not electorally rich by any means, but it's a swing state (Gore barely lost here; a win in NH would, of course, have made Florida moot).
And, if this poll is any indication, Bush has himself a really big problem . . .
His approval has dropped below his disapproval. But even more than that, his re-elect number
has dropped below 40% in a trial heat with BOTH Kerry and Edwards.
Bush Job Approval
Approve 47%
Disapprove 48%
Head to Head (among likely voters)
Kerry 53%
Bush 38%
Edwards 52%
Bush 37%
That's just putrid. Pathetic. Terrible. An incumbent Republican under 40 in NH!
It's important to note that NH voters have been exposed to a lot of Democratic messaging during the intense primary. It may show how low Bush's support can go with a counter message getting strong play.