Few pollsters have painted a bleaker picture for Dean than American Research Group. Yet even ARG is
catching the last-minute Dean surge.
American Research Group
1/24-26 1/23-25 1/22-24 1/21-23
Kerry 35 38 38 34
Dean 25 20 16 15
Edwards 15 16 15 13
Clark 13 15 17 19
Lieberman 6 5 5 6
That's a 12-point swing in just three days of polling. And given the trends, ARG thinks it'll be even closer. It's "best guess" results are:
Kerry 35
Dean 29
Edwards 16
Clark 13
Lieberman 6
In other words, this thing will be TIGHT.
Dean still has a good chance at taking the victory. And given Edwards' buzz of late, I wouldn't be shocked if he came out of nowhere and won this thing or took second.
Anyone who pretends to know how this thing will shake up is a liar. But the momentum -- hence the ability to surprise -- is all with Dean and Edwards.