Tradesports and the Electoral Map

The recent post by lordkelvin, with his questionable analysis of the electoral map caused me to stop and finally get the spreadsheet set up for my analysis of Bush's relection chances.

www.tradesports.com has betting on the chances of each state going for Bush.

Looking at it, we find that eleven states have the odds trading against Bush.  These are

California, Connecticut, D.C., Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont

They represent 169 electoral votes.  Maine is 50% for Bush.  New Jersey is 44% for Bush and would be the most vulnerable for a Bush pickup.

Nine others are leaning toward Bush, but not that strongly ranging from Delaware at 51% to Florida at 66%.  These states are:
Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, and Wisconsin.

If the democratic candidate can take these states, he (or she) will have more electoral votes than Bush.

These will be interesting states to watch.  All in all, the odds makers giving Bush a 64% chance of winning.

The odds have been in the 58%-69% range during the life of the trading.