I'm wondering if Edwards can even pull this off in a good scenario, going forward.
So, I crunched the delegate math, making certain naive blanket assumptions (a semi-realistic "good" scenario for Edwards)
The basic conclusion is: Edwards has a bunch of catching up to do, and even in a good scenario he's probably looking at a brokered convention.
Results and analysis below:
Lets assume (good scenario for Edwards and easy to calculate :-) ):
- Only Edwards and Kerry are viable in every state.
- 15% of the vote goes to Kucinich/Sharpton/Dean (leaving 85% to Kerry/Edwards)
- Edwards gets 50% of the vote. (i.e. 59% of pledged delegates)
- Kerry gets 35% of the vote. (i.e. 41% of pledged delegates)
- The above vote percentages are even across every district in the state as well as state-wide.
- All superdelegates remain as is.
- I'm rounding up for Edwards. Remaining delegates to Kerry. (since 59% doesn't make round numbers and this is an Edwards-favorable scenario)
This is obviously a simplified model... but it assumes that Edwards beats Kerry by 15 points in every state starting from here on out, so it is pretty ambitious.
Question: Can Edwards even catch up to Kerry and/or avoid a brokered convention, assuming this favorable scenario? (Running totals in parentheses)
Start (today, 2/18):
Kerry (608 delegates)
Edwards (190 delegates)
2/24
--Hawaii (20 delegates)--
Edwards: +12 (202)
Kerry: +8 (616)
--Idaho (18 delegates)--
Edwards: +11 (213)
Kerry: +7 (623)
--Utah (23 delegates)--
Edwards: +14 (227 delegates)
Kerry: +9 (632 delegates)
3/2, Super Tuesday
--California (370)--
Edwards: +219 (446)
Kerry: +151 (783)
--Connecticut (49)--
Edwards: +29 (475)
Kerry: +20 (803)
--Georgia (86 delegates)--
Edwards: +51 (526)
Kerry: +35 (838)
--Maryland (69 delegates)--
Edwards: +41 (567)
Kerry: +28 (866)
--Massacusetts (93 delegates)--
Edwards: +55 (622)
Kerry: +38 (904)
--Minnesota (72 delegates)--
Edwards: +43 (665)
Kerry: +29 (931)
--New York (236 delegates)--
Edwards: +140 (805)
Kerry: +96 (1027)
--Ohio (140 delegates)--
Edwards: +83 (888)
Kerry: +57 (1084)
--Rhode Island (21 delegates)--
Edwards: +13 (901)
Kerry: +8 (1092)
--Vermont (15 delegates)--
Edwards: +9 (910 delegates)
Kerry: +6 (1098 delegates)
3/8
--American Samoa (3 delegate votes)--
Edwards: +4 (914 delegates)
Kerry: +2 (1100 delegates)
3/9
--Florida (177 delegates)--
Edwards: +105 (1019)
Kerry: +72 (1172)
--Louisiana (60 delegates)--
Edwards: +36 (1055)
Kerry: +24 (1196)
--Mississippi (33 delegates)--
Edwards: +20 (1075)
Kerry: +13 (1209)
--Texas (195 delegates, assuming same % breakdown in both primary and state convention)--
Edwards: +115 (1190 delegates)
Kerry: +80 (1289 delegates)
3/13
--Kansas (33 delegates, assuming same vote at state convention)--
Edwards: +20 (1210 delegates)
Kerry: +13 (1302 delegates)
3/16
--Illinois (156 delegates)--
Edwards: +92 (1302 delegates)
Kerry: +64 (1366 delegates)
3/20
--Alaska (13 delegates)--
Edwards: +8 (1310)
Kerry: +5 (1371)
--Guam (3 delegates)--
Edwards: +2 (1312)
Kerry: +1 (1372)
--Wyoming (13 delegates)--
Edwards: +8 (1320 delegates)
Kerry: +5 (1377 delegates)
4/13
--Colorado (53 delegates, assuming same %s at state convention)--
Edwards: +32 (1352 delegates)
Kerry: +21 (1398 delegates)
4/17
--North Carolina (90 delegates)--
Edwards: +53 (1405)
Kerry: +37 (1435)
--Virgin Islands (3 delegates)--
Edwards: +2 (1407 delegates)
Kerry: +1 (1436 delegates)
4/27
--Pennsylvania (151 delegates)--
Edwards: +89 (1496 delegates)
Kerry: +62 (1498 delegates)
5/4
--Indiana (67 delegates)--
Edwards: +40 (1536 delegates)
Kerry: +27 (1525 delegates)
EDWARDS IS NOW IN THE LEAD
5/11
--Nebraska (24 delegates)--
Edwards: +15 (1551)
Kerry: +9 (1534)
--West Virginia (28 delegates)--
Edwards: +17 (1568 delegates)
Kerry: +11 (1545 delegates)
5/18
--Arkansas (36 delegates)--
Edwards: +22 (1590)
Kerry: +14 (1559)
--Kentucky (49 delegates)--
Edwards: +29 (1619)
Kerry: +20 (1579)
--Oregon (46 delegates)--
Edwards: +27 (1646 delegates)
Kerry: +19 (1598 delegates)
6/1
--Alabama (54 delegates)--
Edwards: +32 (1678)
Kerry: +22 (1620)
--South Dakota (14 delegates)--
Edwards: +9 (1687 delegates)
Kerry: +5 (1625 delegates)
6/6
--Puerto Rico (51 delegates)--
Edwards: +30 (1717 delegates)
Kerry: +21 (1646 delegates)
6/8
--Montana (15 delegates)--
Edwards: +9 (1726)
Kerry: +6 (1652)
--New Jersey (107 delegates)--
Edwards: +64 (1790 delegates)
Kerry: +43 (1695 delegates)
Number Crunching
Needed to nominate: 2162
Edwards Short: -372
Kerry Short: -467
Currently committed to other candidates (both pledged & superdelegates): 276
Currently uncommitted Superdelegates: 546
Math Errors/Dems. Abroad (i.e. Missing delegates not accounted for above... oops): 15
Short Analysis
Well, it looks like in this simplified Edwards-favorable model, neither candidate will end up with enough delegates going into the convention. Edwards will be short 372, Kerry would be short 467. With 546 uncommitted superdelegates, it could go either way at the actual convention. Thus, according to this model, even if Edwards beats Kerry in every state by 15 points (and no other candidate is viable, but combined take 15%), either Edwards or Kerry will still need to convince the superdelegates in a brokered convention to get the nomination
This could get very interesting if the tide changes towards Edwards after this week, as I believe it will.
Sources:
Delegate selection processes, by state
Current Delegate Scorecard
