I just posted this in the comments to Kos's entry on the state of the race but wanted to repost in diary for -- for what? for posterity's sake, goddamnit! for all of those future sdf historians! Umm, anyway, here it is:
There has truly been an overabundance of predictions here at Kos over the past several extraordinarily chaotic days. Have we learned nothing from Iowa? My own crystal ball has a very large crack that I hardly hope to get fixed in time for this summer, let alone NH. Given the current momentum it seems highly doubtful to me that Dean will finish above third in NH. That may change radically after the debate and Diane Sawyer, or it may not. Damn crack in the crystal ball.
Needless to say, Dean and his $40 million aren't going to quit automatically after NH, wherever he finishes and whatever is said about his political future. The press (and many of the folks here) have already written his obituary, and writing it again will scarcely make him any deader. A week is scarcely enough time for him to recover from the dual debacle of the Iowa results and the incredible buzz surrounding his speech (I am among those who think that it has been entirely, entirely overblown, but we all know that in politics perception very quickly becomes reality), and it would greatly surprise me if he recovered in time to take second. But what do I know. Damn crack in the crystal ball.
If there were one clear candidate heading ineluctably toward the nomination, it would be one thing. But even a Kerry 1st in NH doesn't give him unquestioned front-runner status; a strong 2nd from Clark would keep things very much up in the air, and I don't think Edwards is hurt however he finishes there; no one is expecting him to do any higher than 4th.
Things might begin to clear up by February 3rd. If the money starts to pour into the Kerry campaign and he picks off a couple of biggies (especially MO) than things begin to look a bit clearer. But if Clark or Edwards rides out of Feb. 3rd with momentum, things are entirely different. The fact that votes will be split three and four ways throughout February (even Lieberman is claiming that he will plug on no matter what his NH finish) leaves an opening, yes, even for Dean. He has been tremendously popular in NY and CA, and if he regains some momentum post Feb. 3rd, and Clark, Kerry, and Edwards are still splitting votes and delegates, then it is wide open once again.
But what do I know? Damn crack in the crystal ball.
