Again, these are just the rankings, not a full rundown. There are some notes at the end, though.
More below the jump...
Toss-Up: Minnesota, Rhode Island (see note 1)
Lean Dem: Florida, Michigan (see note 2), Nebraska, Pennsylvania
Likely Dem: Maryland (see note 3), New Jersey, North Dakota, Washington
Solid Dem: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Massachusetts, New Mexico, New York, West Virginia, Wisconsin
Lean GOP: Montana (see note 4), Tennessee
Likely GOP: Arizona, Missouri (see note 5), Virginia
Solid GOP: Indiana, Maine, Mississippi, Nevada, Ohio, Texas, Utah, Wyoming
Solid Indie: Vermont
NOTE 1: A new poll shows Chafee beating Matt Brown 46-27 and Sheldon Whitehouse 41-31. Disastrous, you say? Not so fast. Whitehouse, the favorite to win the primary, has low name recognition...so does Brown. Therefore, for Chafee to be in the low 40's with his beloved last name is pretty good for us. Toss-up until we see Chafee over 50 in an independent poll.
NOTE 2: Keith Butler and Jane Abraham are in. Oh dear, I'm shaking in my boots.
NOTE 3: Liddy Dole is trying to get Michael Steele to run. Fine. Don't be scared by those polls that show Steele barely losing, 41-43, to Kweisi Mfume...let's remember how high Steele's name recognition is. Steele ain't no Obama (sorry Freepers), and either Cardin or Mfume can beat him, especially with coattails from O'Malley in the gubernatorial contest.
NOTE 4: Jon Tester may be in. An ideal candidate - farmer, rural, Montanan through and through. He or John Morrison can beat the corrupt and unpopular Burns.
NOTE 5: Claire McCaskill may be reconsidering challenging Talent. That would be nice, since every other strong Dem in Missouri is out, and Talent is hypothetically vulnerable.
Overall, the momentum is still there for Democrats, but no guarantees yet. We had momentum in 2001 as well, and on November 5, 2002, that...well, vanished. So, don't bring out the wine yet, but don't be pissy either. Unlike 2004, we don't have a bunch of unfriendly territory to defend. And unlike 2004, we will have three things going for us: Schiavo, Social Security, and the sixth-year itch. NEVER IN A SIXTH YEAR ELECTION HAS THE PRESIDENT'S PARTY GAINED SEATS IN THE SENATE, AND ONLY ONCE - IN 1998 - HAS THAT PARTY GAINED SEATS IN THE HOUSE.