This is my first diary, so be nice!
I am an EMILY's List (EL) Majority Council member and spent this afternoon on a conference call with EL president, Ellen Malcolm, their pollster and political director as they rolled out the first results of their annual Women's Monitor poll. They were very encouraged by the trends among women voters in particular. In short, the Republicans are losing the support of all ilks of women.
For the big picture, the Monitor found seriously waning support among women for Republicans on just about every level and every issue. The Monitor found groups they called "key defectors" represented a broad swath of women, all of whom favored Democrats over Republicans in 2006 by 18 points or more. The GOP is losing women for three main reasons: 1). A mood for change, because the country is going in the "wrong direction"; 2). Shifting issues focus, from terrorism and security to domestic issues; 3). Overreaching by the GOP on so-called "values" issues.
More details on the flipside....
To clarify: This poll asked about generic Democratic versus Republican candidates for 2006, or congressional races.
The Women's Monitor poll actually consists of intensive interviews conducted in May 2005, and included 2007 women and 606 men nationwide. The margin of error is +/- 2%. The sample was taken from the DNC's file of registered voters (of all voters).
I. The Gender Gap: When asked whether they will vote R or D in 2006, women chose D 43% to 32%, while men chose D 36% to R 41%. A third of women who voted for Bush in 2004 say they aren't voting GOP in 2006, but of these 26% are undecided and only 8% say they will vote Dem.
II. Key Defectors: The following subgroups of women were identified and categorized through their combinations of answers to various questions. They represent voters among whom the GOP have lost ground and who now say they will not vote GOP in 2006 by an 18 point or more shift in support (that is for example, 50% voted for Bush in 2004, but now only 30% say they will vote GOP in 2006). They include: 1). Anti-intrusion social conservatives; 2). Non-college educated whites; 3). Midwestern whites; 4). Catholics; 5). Married whites no children at home; 6). Moderate women; 7). Weak Republicans.
To elaborate on some of these subgroups, Moderate Women, 46% of whom voted Bush 2004, are down to 28% support for the GOP in 2006. They represent 31% of the female electorate who are cross-pressured in their views by the parties. They split 46-46 on Bush and Kerry in 2004. Anti-intrusion social conservatives are largely anti-choice, and represent 20% of the female electorate who want abortion illegal or only for rape or incest. However, they strongly believe the government should not impose moral views on individuals. Enter the backlash for the Schiavo fiasco. They now support generic Dems 38-30.
III. Why the GOP is Losing Ground: 1). Defectors say the country is on the "wrong track", and with the Republicans in total control, they are ready to assign them the blame. In particular, anti-intrusion conservatives say "wrong track" by an astonishing 53-29 split (these are 100% Bush 2004 voters). 2). The GOP doesn't share women's concerns. The top issues of concern to all women were Social Security's security, the situation in Iraq (meaning how bad things are there), health care, education and the economy/jobs. Terrorism was the top concern of only 5% of women and moral issues of only 4%. I think we can see how ass-backwards the GOP agenda is compared to these priorities. When women were asked who they preferred on the issue of top concern to them, the Democrats were favored by ratios of +12 to +46 in every single issue, including the situation in Iraq. Women trust Democrats more than Republicans on every issue, and are even tied on "keep the US safe from terrorism".
Women are pessimistic about the economy, and 50% think our best days are behind us vs. 39% who think our best days are still ahead. The reverse is true for men. Women also doubt the GOP approach to terrorism of "hit them before they hit us", and instead support an approach that builds alliances and promotes diplomacy. Bush defectors favor the latter 53% to 30%.
And while the GOP has tried desperately to position itself as having cornered the market on family values and moral superiority, they have failed to convince women. The vast majority of Dem and Independent women think religion and morality should be left up to individuals, not that the government should be actively involved in protecting and promoting moral values. Indeed, only 56% of Republican women support the latter. That leaves the GOP pretty high and dry on their morality agenda. 44% of Republican women support stem cell research.
In the end, family and community are the values most important to women in general. Women largely see their primary role as caring for others, and are more likely than men to value caring for those in need. This outlook should bode well for Democrats as it seems to line up nicely with the Democratic agenda. Women however, don't want their elected officials necessarily to be church-goers or even to have families of their own. They expect elected officials to exhibit honesty and personal accountability. That's also bad for the party of Delay, "Duke" Cunningham and all of Ohio Republicans, all of whom are mired in scandal.
Bottom line, women are decidedly dissatisfied with the Republicans, they aren't so scared of terrorists anymore, they're getting fed up with Bush's war and his empty promises on education, health care, Social security, etc. But the Democrats haven't closed the deal or courted them to our side. We need to send a message of hope on the domestic issues and hammer on the Republicans overreaching on intrusion into people's personal lives. EL plans to communicate these ideas to women votes through their Women Vote project and their women candidates nationwide. They also pointed out that women tend to watch local news programs, while men watch national cable and local programs equally, so targeting of the message is also important.
There's lots more details at EMILY's List website
