Following my previous
diary, I've updated the empirical states-to-win. Since I last posted, Florida has moved into play, and Minnesota is now safe.
To remind you, I take the last traded price at tradesports, and
- A state trading below 40 is a safe Dem
- A state trading above 65 is a safe Rep
- A state trading 40-50 is an 'in-play' 'defend'
- A state trading 51-65 is an 'in-play' 'target'
If we are only going to capture one 'target', there are just three minimal winning sets:
FLORIDA IOWA MICHIGAN PENNSYLVANIA WISCONSIN
FLORIDA MICHIGAN PENNSYLVANIA WESTVIRGINIA WISCONSIN
IOWA MICHIGAN OHIO PENNSYLVANIA WESTVIRGINIA WISCONSIN
Win Florida and we can afford to lose one of Iowa and West Virgina; win Ohio and we can't afford to lose any 'defend' states.
Four states qualify as targets (MISSOURI, NEVADA, NEWHAMPSHIRE and NEWMEXICO) but are not worth winning in this model - there are no combinations where they make the difference between a win and a lose.
Allowing two 'targets' there are a lot more permutations.
FLORIDA IOWA MICHIGAN MISSOURI PENNSYLVANIA
FLORIDA MICHIGAN OHIO PENNSYLVANIA
FLORIDA MICHIGAN MISSOURI PENNSYLVANIA WESTVIRGINIA
FLORIDA IOWA MICHIGAN NEVADA PENNSYLVANIA WESTVIRGINIA
FLORIDA IOWA MICHIGAN NEWHAMPSHIRE PENNSYLVANIA WESTVIRGINIA
FLORIDA IOWA MICHIGAN NEWMEXICO PENNSYLVANIA WESTVIRGINIA
FLORIDA IOWA OHIO PENNSYLVANIA WESTVIRGINIA
IOWA MICHIGAN MISSOURI OHIO PENNSYLVANIA WESTVIRGINIA
FLORIDA IOWA MICHIGAN OHIO WISCONSIN
FLORIDA IOWA MICHIGAN PENNSYLVANIA WISCONSIN
FLORIDA MICHIGAN MISSOURI PENNSYLVANIA WISCONSIN
FLORIDA MICHIGAN NEVADA PENNSYLVANIA WISCONSIN
FLORIDA MICHIGAN NEWMEXICO PENNSYLVANIA WISCONSIN
FLORIDA IOWA OHIO PENNSYLVANIA WISCONSIN
IOWA MICHIGAN MISSOURI OHIO PENNSYLVANIA WISCONSIN
IOWA MICHIGAN NEVADA OHIO PENNSYLVANIA WISCONSIN
IOWA MICHIGAN NEWMEXICO OHIO PENNSYLVANIA WISCONSIN
FLORIDA MICHIGAN PENNSYLVANIA WESTVIRGINIA WISCONSIN
FLORIDA IOWA MISSOURI PENNSYLVANIA WESTVIRGINIA WISCONSIN
FLORIDA OHIO PENNSYLVANIA WESTVIRGINIA WISCONSIN
IOWA MICHIGAN OHIO PENNSYLVANIA WESTVIRGINIA WISCONSIN
MICHIGAN MISSOURI OHIO PENNSYLVANIA WESTVIRGINIA WISCONSIN
Pennsylvania remains a must win (unless we can capture Florida and Ohio).
