Tinfoil Hat Thought Experiment:
What if, on election-eve, Bush is down in the polls, with all the "experts" predicting a loss for Bush and a Democratic take-over in Congress?
The only thing that could possibly move the numbers toward Bush quickly enough would the capture or killing of Osama Bin Laden.
Assuming the Administration doesn't have OBL in cold storage (they don't), what would Karl do (WWKD)? Allow events to take their natural course? Of course not.
What he could do though is almost as good as capturing or killing Bin Laden. He could lie about capturing or killing Bin Laden.
Here's how it might work:
On October 30th, a vague report appears in a foreign newspaper.
"Anonymous Pakistani intelligence officials are reporting that a early-morning raid of a tribal village on the Afghan-Pakistan border netted several high-ranking members of Al Qaeda--including a man that may fit the description of Osama Bin Laden."
The rumor starts spreading like wildfire on right-wing blogs. Drudge reports on the reports. The White House refuses to comment while they "investigate".
If Rove times it just right, by Monday morning the cable news programs are reporting on the White House's "no comment". By now, the rumor is water-cooler talk at workplaces across the country.
By Monday night the network news is reporting that the White House is neither confirming nor denying the reports, (but an anonymous high-ranking official is "cautiously optimistic" that OBL may have been netted.) Bush, doing some last minute campaigning in Florida, refuses to comment specifically on the rumor but reiterates his statement about getting Bin Laden "dead or alive".
Nov. 2: Bush (barely) wins the election with exit polls showing that reports of Bin Laden's capture heavily influenced last-minute voters.
Nov. 3: False Alarm. Pakistani officials admit that the man in question is actually Cat Stevens.
Bonus thought experiment: What is the appropriate Democratic response to the rumors?
