The Democratic party holds 1-seat majorities in both chambers at the state house in Colorado for the first time in 40 years! Our GOoP Gov. is term-limited out. CD-7 is the 'most competitive' district in the nation. It's going to be an exciting 2006 in Centennial state! Here's where stand on maintaining control of the State Senate. Follow this race, and all things Colorado @ SoapBlox Colorado
There are 35 seats in the Colorado Senate. Senators serve 4 year terms. Every two years, half of the body is up for reelection. With 35 being an odd number, sometimes there are 17 races, sometimes there are 18. There are 17 seats up for grabs in 2006. Senators are limited to serving 2 terms in office, or 8 years.
The magic number for the majority is 18 seats, the number the Dems currently hold.
Based on the 2002 Results, the GOoPs have to defend 10 seats, and the Dems only have to defend 7. Meaning, the "race to 18", the starting lines for each side begin with this:
Baseline for Senate
GOP: 7 seats - Dem: 11 seats
lots more...
Safe Seats
There were five uncontested races last cycle: two Democrats and three Republicans.
The unchallenged Republicans hail from the SD-13, SD-9, and SD-7--Weld, El Paso, and Grand Junction respectively--and they all are term-limited in 2006. Primary fights are gearing up between GOoPs; not a single Dem with their hat in the ring. These seats will probably stay Republicans. The two unchallenged Dems hail from SD-32 and SD-34--good ol' Denver--and are not term limited and running for re-election. These seats will go Dem.
Adding these "safe seats" to our totals, we get our new line:
GOP: (7 + 3 safe) 10 seats - Dem: (11 + 2 safe) 13 seats
Contested Races
The "safer" seats for the Dems seem to be these:
SD-3 - Abel Tapia - 63.84 %
SD-24 - Lois Tochtrop - 57.55 %
Since neither is term-limited and both are seeking re-election, I think it safe to add them to the Dems column, giving us a new line:
GOP: 10 seats - Dem: (13 + 2 safer) 15 seats
Only three more districts to win! So let's take a look at the closest races for the Dems where they barely won were:
SD-4 - James Isgar - 53.56%
SD-16 - Joan Fitz-Gerald - 52.39%
SD-20 - Maryanne Moe Keller - 50.24%
With the news that Mark Larson had dropped out of the race in Senate, Isgar's seat almost moves into the "safer" category.
For the sake of my tally here, I'm going to count it as so, moving the line to:
GOP: 10 seats - Dem: (15 + 1 close->safer) 16 seats
We already know Fitz-Gerald is one the GOoP hit-list, with the controversy surrounding Joan and term limits. And to this political novice, the GOoPs would be fools not to target SD-20.
Regardless, the Dems only need to seriously fight to hold 2 seats, leaving them largely free to go on the offensive, and try and tie down GOoP resources in places their not used to be fighting for, leaving them less money to target our Dems.
When Dems Attack
First on the list must be SD-11, where in 2002, the vote looked like this:
St. Senate - District 11 Colorado Springs
(REP) 12260 51.37 % - Ed Jones
(DEM) 11607 48.63 %
Don't know who ran against him, but Dan Willis says says "Michael Merrifield (D) current State Rep. is looking seriously at running". I know there are folks from the Springs here who could give us more info on this.
The other races where GOoPs won went down like this:
SD-2 - Ken Kester - 59.16% - SE Colorado
SD-5 - Lewis Entz - 61.00% - San Luis Valley
SD-15 - Steve Johnson - 62.45% - Greater Ft. Collins
SD-22 - Norma Anderson (term-limited) - 65.19% - South Jeff Co
SD-30 - John Evans (term-limited) - 70.94% - Highlands Ranch and Parker
SD-1 - Mark Hillman ([Greg Brophy ] appointed in 2005, running) - 75.18% - Eastern Plains
What could be interesting is who replaces Norma Anderson at the top of the ticket. Anderson is from the "moderate" side of the state GOP, and if the primary voters elect a real "anti-gov't", a strong Democratic candidate could make inroads. Dan Willis says Keith Ingoe is the Democrat who has announced.
What to do?
So the question becomes where do we focus our money and effort? I say the we should go targeting districts where we can "synergize" with the House races we need to attack and defend. I can also see how fielding some capable Democrats up through Congressional District 4 could have huge coattails both ways--for Paccione, to Governor, to diverting GOoP dollars defending their previously "unchallenged" seats.
You tell me folks. How are the Dems going to get to that magic number 18?
And check out this fun summary of Colorado politics.
Follow this race, and all things Colorado @ SoapBlox Colorado