There's been a gathering notion recently that Kerry is unstoppable at this point and we should just fold our tents and jump on his bandwagon. If Kerry actually gets a majority of the delegates and becomes the official candidate, I'll do that, but not one minute before that.
I say this because I think Kerry is the weakest candidate out of the 4 main candidates, and I want more time to unseat his status as frontrunner. While Kerry may very well wrap up this thing sooner rather than later, there's an equally plausible scenario where that doesn't happen.
The main reason is that while Kerry has a plurality of support, it's a soft plurality consisting of people who were previously undecided but now choose to support the frontrunner. However, support for Dean and Clark (and to some degree Edwards, Lieberman, Kucinich) although smaller, is much more entrenched.
Usually, in ordinary elections, such entrenched support is not there. So when a candidate wins Iowa and NH, the frontrunner effect is overwhelming. The press, whose analysis is highly dubious at times, is expecting Kerry to roll in the Feb 3 states:
- OK - Clark, Kerry
- AZ - Kerry, Clark
- Mo - Kerry
- NM - Kerry, Clark?
- SC - Edwards, Kerry
- DE - Kerry, Lieberman
- ND - Kerry, Clark
IF Clark, Edwards, and even Dean (God, we could use him on Feb 3) manages not to be blown out, then the news starts to shift from "Kerry is going all the way" to "Why are the other candidates still receiving strong support, and why can't Kerry put these guys away?" We'll start to see the end of the frontrunner effect, and move to more of a hunkered-down campaign where the candidates are on a more level plane.
Hopefully, this will go the convention. All the press has been doing us good lately.
