The East Valley Tribune published this morning the results of a statewide poll conducted for KAET-TV, local PBS, by Bruce Merrill, professor at ASU.
The head to head numbers for Kerry are:
- Kerry
- Bush
- undecided.
The head to head numbers for Edwards are:
- Edwards
- Bush
- undecided.
Margin of error is 4.7%. Sample is 430 registered voters. Poll dates are 2/19 - 2/22.
I posted these comments in someone else's earlier diary:
I live in the Phoenix area and visit Nevada regularly and both states "feel" to me ready to switch from red to blue. In both states during the casual conversations I have with strangers (not a fair poll, I know) I hear mostly "Bush needs to go." In AZ the executive branch went D last election. In NV there is the reneged Yucca Mtn promise. In both states the population growth from Californians and Hispanics adds more D voters.
That is a swing of 15 EVs, big enough for victory if the other states stay the same. Call it the Southwest Strategy.
But, remember how close a lot of the states were last time? It would not take much of the "Bush fatigue" I am hearing to increase the D margins in the "Gore states" and change over some of the closest red ones to blue.
Per "The Swing State Project," the closest four red states were FL, NH, MO and OH. The Gore + Nader vote in these was 51%, 51%, 49% and 49% respectively. Change a few votes in these states and that moves another 62 EVs.
I do not want to sound unrealistically optimistic but I see a big D victory as quite possible. Getting these extra votes would require our nominee to show some spine, pound on Bush. Bluntly point out the failures and call for change. Republican lite is not going to get it done.
