here's some quick insta-thoughts for your consideration....
#1: this is one we'll be talking about for awhile...
there's a big difference between a surprise defeat (I see Gep and Dean as defeated here) and a "surprise avalanche defeat..." which is what just happened...Kerry + Edwards = 73% of Iowan Dems at this point....NO ONE would have said this a month ago.
we saw something like this in CA with the recall...yeah, the recall passed...but did anyone think Arnold was going to win outright...??? (no.) Results like this make for real, long term consequences.
This is not a simple..."OK Gep and Dean didn't do so well"....it is HUGE....and has huge implications that will carry over both in NH, further primaries, and in how we debate this gol'danged process here on dKos.
#2: OK. so, Kerry and Edwards. I think everyone needs to take a deep breath and begin to answer...why???
Why Kerry? and why Edwards? There may be different reasons that each surged....and then won big...
but we need to know. We need to get to the kernal of why these two did so well. Simplistic answers won't cut it...
my hunch is that is has to have something to do with negatives about Gep and Dean as much as positives for Kerry and Edwards.
#3: Gephardt
As a Gephardt supporter I've endured endless comments to the effect of "Gep's toast"....
Gep is toast.
My prediction is that he will conduct himself well. And if we win in 2004...we'll hear more from him. Sec. of Labor???
But Gep is like Gore....he will leave the stage...and, no, I don't expect tears. I'm not crying.
#4: Dean
Dean got 40% of the caucus-goers that said the war was the most important issue....(about 18% of Iowan Democrats)
If you do the math....that's about half of his total support.
I think Dean's performance in Iowa is directly related to his position on the war in Iraq...and his claim of a "pure" moral high ground...it just doesn't resonate with Middle America.
In effect Howard Dean says...I never even wavered in my opposition to this war from the very beginning...and "everyone else" wasn't with me...
it just so happens that everyone else includes a majority of the American Public.
If I had a message to Dean supporters tonight, it would be this:
if you believe in Howard Dean and his candidacy...stick with him! That's what the primaries are about. He may yet overcome this. He may not, but give one hell of a speech come the convention.
But...please understand that the voters in Iowa who did not vote for your candidate want George Bush out of office just as much as you do. Somewhere in the Dean campaign's "ethos" it was easy to get the impression that Dean's supporters didn't see the rest of us this way...
this needs to end. A vote for Kerry or Edwards by a Democrat is deserving of respect. In fact, respect is the only way to win votes...
if Howard is going to win this...he needs to understand this to his bones.
#5: Edwards
Edwards in second is an enormous story. The reasons behind it, I think, at the final analysis, will be ones that give Karl Rove chills...
solid positions and personal appeal...
whether John Edwards is on the ticket or not...his recipe is how we will defeat GWB
and I hope and pray John Edwards is on the ticket.
#6: Kerry
I don't like Kerry. Never have.
I am going to give him a second look...and I would encourage anyone who hasn't made up their mind to do so.
I respect his service to our country...and I think he could defeat Bush.
Something about him makes me long for him to stay in the Senate, however.
Why he did so well in Iowa is the question of the moment. Something that folks need to remember, however, is that John Kerry is no novice when it comes to politics. All true politicians know that what counts is the votes...and how to get them.
He won. He deserves credit. If he's worthy...he might win my support. If he's not...I will look elsewhere.
#7: New Hampshire
Kerry, Edwards, Dean, Clark, Lieberman.
absolutely fascinating.
#8: Karl Rove
Democracy is scary.
The most frightening thing to incumbents is fast moving changes in voter preference at the polls....
the Kerry/Edwards surge scares the hell out of the Bush camp. I guarantee you.
Let's stay positive...and kick 'em out of Washington!