2008: 1/16-17 results.

dKos Reader Poll. 1/16/07 1:20 p.m. to 1/17/07 10:29 p.m. PT. 21,349 respondents.

           2008            2007
           Jan16 Jan7 Jan2 Dec19 Dec12 Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun

Obama        41    39   27   27   30   27   16  21  29  27  22
Edwards      38    43   48   41   39   33   31  39  34  36  40
H. Clinton   11     7    7    6    8    9    9  11   8   9   6
Kucinich      4     4    3    5    8    9    5   6   4   3   2
No F'ing Clue 2     2    2    2    4    4    5   5   5   7   7
Other         1     1    1    1    1    1    3   6   5   7   9

-------Out of the race--------

Dodd          -    -     4   11    2    7   21   7   0   1   0
Biden         -    -     1    2    2    2    1   1   1   0   0
Richardson    -    1     1    1    1    1    2   1   6   5   8
Gravel*       -    -     0    0    0    0    0   0   1   1   3

So this is interesting. Edwards loses five points, which is pretty natural as people see him as less viable. There's also Richardson single point of support. So the pot is six percent of the vote being reassigned.

Four percent of it goes to Hillary, and only two to Obama. I wouldn't have expected that. Obama now leads the field, and will likely do so from here on out. The netroots in general is more anti-establishment than anything else, so Hillary is at a gross disadvantage on that front. But Obama's lead is more a function of Edwards deflation, and a significant chunk of Edwards supporters than any real spike in his support. And Hillary was the big (percentage-wise) gainer.

Of course, this assumes a zero-sum game. It's possible that Edwards supporters did go to Obama, while Obama bled some support to Hillary. Obama had a bit of a rough patch recently, so it's not just possible, but probably likely.

* Yeah, I know Gravel isn't out of the race. Or maybe he is. I don't even know anymore. And the fact that it doesn't matter means that it doesn't matter.