I don't want to vote in my Primary with my heart or my gut; I'd like to vote with my head. I'm undecided, and while many may find that hard to believe, I find it hard to believe that so many people are so fiercely decided.
When I can’t make a decision, sometimes I get out Excel, put the choices across the top row, create a bunch of criteria down the left hand column, weight each criteria, create a little formula across the bottom to sum the total weighted scores, and then start entering numbers on a scale of 1-10 for each choice's alignment to each criteria. (Yes, I actually do this... Doesn't everybody?)
Fortunately I saved myself some time by boiling my criteria down to three simple questions, and asking myself a fourth question to come up with the weights.
1. Who would get the most done as President on the issues that I care about the most?
As much as I have been jingled (by both the MSM and by her own campaign) into not much caring for Clinton, we're not going to be BFFs and that's not what this is about. Making some ideological compromises and politicking her way to incremental steps in the right direction - isn't that better than being ideologically right-on but unable to implement "step function" change? Contrary to what I've heard the President is not the Decider... it takes more than great ideas to change a country.
Clinton portrays herself as much more centrist than I am (I'm left of all of them), but pair Clinton with a strong liberal fighter (Dodd comes to mind - again, they don't need to be BFFs, they just need to work together) and they might really make some progress in the White House. Foreign policy and "restoring America's standing in the world" with Clinton at the helm remains a concern, but again, a pairing with a good VP alleviates that a bit. A final concern with Clinton/Dodd is fiscal conservatism, but I think they both know that they owe it to the people to check themselves on that one. And with Dodd fighting to "restore the Constitution" and the integrity of the White House, it would make sense that he try to sidestep breaks for big business that weren't in America's best interests.
Having said that, can I live with myself making a "safe bet" when both the other candidates have ideologies and visions more aligned with mine?
Clinton: 7.5
Obama: 6.5
Edwards: 7.0
Clinton gets high marks for being a safe bet for making at least some progress. Edwards fares better than Obama for being slightly more aligned to my priorities and ideals, and for seeming like he might be slightly less risky in terms of getting things done.
2. Who would be the "most electable" in the general election?
Edwards may be painting himself as the farthest left of the three, but he's also positioned himself nicely as "the voice of the people", and has been able to stay out of range of most of the, um, "negative campaign tactics". So Edwards is looking like a breath of fresh air.
And anyway: I admit I don't live in the U.S. anymore, but something tells me that Edwards, a southern white man, would have the best chance in the general election.
Having said that, my otherwise-great-guy centrist registered Republican friend said that he liked Obama best out of all the candidates, R or D. Then again, how many otherwise-great-guy centrist registered Republican people are there out there? (To add insult to injury - he's registered to vote in MA.)
Clinton: 6.0
Obama: 7.0
Edwards: 8.0
Polls, schmolls. There are just too many people out there who just plain don't like Clinton.
3. What would be a "tactical" vote in the Primaries / in my Primary? What would be the impact of my vote, and do I want to vote tactically?
Listen: Edwards is a long, long, long shot. With near 100% certainty - he's not going to win this. But if Clinton and Obama are close enough, Edwards' delegates could decide the election.
Edwards, arguably, is splitting votes with Clinton in states where race is an issue and is splitting votes with Obama in states where gender is an issue or where liberal idealogy is given greater importance.
I've decided to vote in Democrats Abroad. Who will they be voting for? I can't wait to see the results of this. My guess is that it will be close, but that Clinton will take it. So if I vote in my primary for Edwards (if the race were closer, he'd probably be my "gut" vote), am I not voting for Obama? But if Edwards ends up giving his delegates to Obama, would it just come out in the wash?
Clinton: 5.0
Obama: 6.5
Edwards: 3.0
This is a tough one. I want my vote to have an impact. I think Clinton will win Democrats Abroad with Obama a relatively close second. An Edwards vote is not insignificant, however.
4. Which of these is most important to me?
All of the candidates are going to strive to implement their agendas. The critical issue is to get started on turning America around.
Q1: 0.8
Q2: 1.0
Q3: 0.3
********************* And now, for the results: *********************
Clinton: 13.5
Obama: 14.15
Edwards: 14.5
Hmm, Edwards. The tactical vote thing? Did I give enough weight to that? But did I give Edwards enough electability points? Time to go play with the numbers...