This Saturday, Taiwan will choose its 3rd democratically-elected President. There are a lot of issues to be considered, but let's face it: it is all about China.
Being an American living in Taiwan and having recently visited Beijing, and with the current situation in Tibet, I thought I'd babble a bit about politics in Taiwan, China, and the upcoming election, if for no other reason than to say, "Hey! Daily Kos! Look over here!" for a moment before scrolling into oblivion.
Quick background for those unfamiliar with politics in Taiwan: What it comes down to – albeit in a generalized sense – is the Pan-Blue coalition (led by the KMT), pro "Chinese reunification" versus the Pan-Green coalition (led by the DPP), pro "Taiwan independence".
Taiwan's current President (serving his second term, a narrow win in 2004 that launched our very own recount fiasco) was the first ever DPP President, though I wouldn't say great strides towards "internationally recognized independence" were made. Signs were changed from "Chinese-Taipei" to "Taiwan". Monuments were renamed. [Ok, I'm not giving him enough credit, but the envelope wasn't pushed to the brink by any measure. I suppose this speaks to the extremely delicate nature of the "cross straight" situation. But I'm getting ahead of myself.] Entangled in personal and political scandals, the DPP party lost momentum in December 2005 when the KMT won the majority of city and county government seats. (Bizarro-world!)
To be clear about the DPP – they're pro-democracy moderate liberals who transformed Taiwan from one-party rule to having democratically elected representatives. For all intents and purposes, the KMT are the conservatives.
But in Taiwan, "liberal" and "conservative" is some distant distraction from The Big Question. And while the reality of the situation is that neither party is going to do anything hasty with respect to cross-straight relations, nearly every issue in this election is tied to the delicate relationship between China and Taiwan and how it is handled by the rest of the world.
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It strikes me that "hope" has different interpretations in this election than it does in the U.S. I think the KMT brings to the table an enormous amount of hope and faith that China's growth will trend upwards economically and socially, towards world superpowerdom in many respects, but presumably also towards moderation politically. If this is the future of China, the KMT wants Taiwan to have a piece. The DPP does not share this optimism for China. Their hope is that someday world superpowers will not be so compelled to tiptoe around China that they might actually peaceably recognize Taiwan as a sovereign nation, independent from China.
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Is China, with its 1/5th-of-the-world's-population, on a crash course with inevitability to become the world's biggest superpower? I'm not an expert on China or international trade, but a country that holds "over $1 trillion in dollar denominated assets (of which $330 billion are U.S. Treasury notes)" and spent over $325 million on a stadium can't be doing all that bad.
But at what cost? Violent "suppression" of political uprising? "Suppression" of (and blame on) the media?
Just Tuesday, a CNN crew was on its way toward a site where Tibetan exiles say Chinese forces killed 30 Tibetan protesters. Yet Chinese security forces made the CNN crew turn back while they were still hundreds of miles away.
The Chinese government, meanwhile, lashed out Wednesday at what it sees as distorted news coverage that paints its forces as aggressors while downplaying the violent acts of Tibetan demonstrators.
Having been to China I can say with certainty that we are not hearing the whole story on this one. Remember what happened last time there was a political uprising in China... What's happening in Tibet is an image of all the tiny images of this happening all over China, all put together. (Incidentally, I tried to wikipedia Tiananmen Square while I was in Beijing and it was blocked. I googled it instead, and for the rest of the day my internet was taken down. Coincidence?)
There is grave talk around these parts that Taiwan would become a Tibet.
For those going to the polls, Tibet should serve as a loud and blaring wake up call. For those who think things have changed and that Beijing is a kinder and gentler adversary, wake up.
The predatory neighbor is not coming to visit Taiwan bearing cookies. It is coming bearing dictatorship and tyranny. Vote for anything less than complete vigilance against it, and you are inviting the beast to a dinner where you are the main dish.
And if you doubt that, if you are skeptical that Beijing could do that, just read about Tibet right now.
It's real. It's happening. The actions of Beijing in Tibet are no different than its attitude toward Taiwan.
And it's coming, unless you vote to keep it out.
You decide.
To be honest, I'm not sure I could even take a Beijing.
To underscore the difference between the two parties: the KMT's response to the Tibet situation is to consider boycotting the Olympics, whereas the DPP suggests abandoning the "one China market" concept (sort of a NAFTA for China/Taiwan) might be a little more appropriately heavy-handed. You think?
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The U.S. would rather see the KMT win this election, as it already walks a very, very fine line of "acknowledgement" of China's position on Taiwan and "non-support" of any moves by Taiwan to proclaim independence. But while there are a lot of guns pointed at Taiwan, China won't abandon its "one country, two systems" line – the other side of this delicate agreement (China's way of staving off international pressure and fears) just because the DPP wins.
I think hope for Taiwan lies in continuing to lobby for its seat at the UN, to continue to put pressure on the international community to not let China get away with it, to not put all our eggs in that basket, just because it looms so powerful.
That's why this Saturday I'm voting for Barack Obama. Uh, I mean, the DPP. Uh, if I could vote, that is.