With one week left until Iowa and the final Empirical Cattle Call projections, every ECC installment will include far more than the previous daily and semi-daily updates.
Today, I introduce the "viability line." The viability line represents 15% of the ECC's total points. With the 15% threshold required in order to reach delegates in most states, I figure this will be as good a line as any to determine if a campaign is strong enough to viable all the way until Super Tuesday.
Today's viability line: 44.5 If a candidate is below 44.5, don't expect that candidate to have any impact on Super Tuesday. Candidates in bold are viable.
Dean: 100.0
Clark: 56.2
Gephardt: 33.9
Kerry: 33.1
Lieberman: 28.1
Edwards: 23.1
Sharpton: 9.1
Kucinich: 7.1
Moseley-Braun: 6.0
Fun facts:
-John Kerry held a small, 100.0 - 96.8, lead on Dean in the very first, August 19th Empirical Cattle Call. It was the only Empirical Cattle Call when Dean was not winning (back then I did them weekley, rather than daily). Back then, Kerry was at or very near the top in money, media, national polls, and IA + NH. Also, back then, there was no "delegates" category.
-The top three news stories of the entire invisible primary were, in order, Gore's endorsement of Dean, Clark's announcement, and Dean's flag flap.
-In early October, with his national numbers and state numbers soaring, Clark peaked at 86. He even took a small lead on Dean when money was factored out of the equation.
-Before Graham dropped out, Sharpton had already passed him.
-Edwards never rose above 70, and never moved into the top three.
-The lowest ever standing ever in the ECC was just a couple weeks ago when Carol Moseley-Braun registered at only 4.6.
-The ECC has been promoted to the front page twice.
