Based on the CNN results, I've created the following spreadsheet to predict the result on prop 8, MN senate, and GA senate
Using CNN's results, I assumed the following
- A county will vote with the same proportion for or against a candidate/proposition as currently reported.
- The number of precincts is proportional to the population (Assuming 92% of precincts reported represents 92% of the votes in a county)
- Ignore any county with 0% of precincts reporting (this is 0 for the Mn senate and under 10 for prop 8)
The following results were obtained:
MN senate:
Franken votes: 1,197,713.
Coleman votes: 1,184,856.
Prop 8:
Votes against: 5,138,337
Votes for: 5,433,610
This prediction for CA total votes is low (due to assumption 3), will update as CNN updates results. If anyone knows where I can upload the spreadsheet I'd be more than happy to post it.
Update:
Based on the most recent CNN update on prop 8:
Against: 5,865,313
For: 5,892,551
Update 2:
Franken: 1,207,069
Coleman: 1,195,949
Update 3:
Against: 5,834,850
For: 5,833,609
Not much, but it's somehting
Update 4:
I have Chambliss getting 50.5% of the vote in GA
Update 5:
No on 8 keeps on pulling ahead:
Against: 5,716,684
For: 5,706,135
Update 6:
MN looks stable at Franken +8000
Update 7:
As more counties come in and get off 0% (only 2 counties at 0% now), prop 8 is winning 53-47 with votes:
Against: 5,446,706
For: 6,201,688
Last update:
MN senate:
Franken: 1,205,248
Coleman: 1,196,657
Still an 8k lead for Franken.
Prop 8:
Against: 5,446,706
For: 6,201,688
GA:
Still have Chambliss at 50.5