Bush 45%, Kerry 44%. Ah, but there's so much beneath the surface.
link
In a mid-February AP poll, Americans were evenly divided on the effects of military action in Iraq, with 38 percent saying it had increased the terror threat and the same number saying the threat had decreased.
The current poll found that 41 percent approve of Bush's performance on foreign policy issues and 51 percent approve of his handling of the war on terrorism. His standing with the public on those issues has dropped since January.
"I would like if there was a better challenger for Bush," said Justin Tucker, a 21-year-old college student from Prosser, Wash., who supports the president. "I just don't believe in ripping the president out of office during a war on terror - especially to replace him with Kerry. Who knows what Kerry's going to do?"
Public confidence in the economy also has slipped over the last month - a measure often affected by international turbulence.
And the public's view of Bush's handling of the economy was unchanged since March after signs last week that the jobs picture is improving. More than half in the poll, 53 percent, disapproved of Bush's handling of the economy.
Growing fears about the situation in Iraq and doubts about Bush's handling of domestic and foreign issues have not helped Kerry to this point. Bush generally gets higher marks than Kerry on handling of foreign policy and terrorism, despite the recent decline in his own ratings.
"If he had let a west Texas boy run that war, it would be over by now," said Robert DeWoody, a 61-year-old independent from Odessa, Texas, who supports Bush. DeWoody disputed any suggestion that Bush is a Texan. "He lived here a little while, but he doesn't have the west Texas mentality."
The poll comes after both sides have spent more than $60 million on advertising in swing states, including an estimated $40 million by Bush's re-election campaign. Bush's ads depict Kerry as a politician who flip-flops on the issues, while many Kerry ads criticize Bush's handling of the economy.
While the public may still have doubts about Kerry, the view of Bush remains lukewarm.
Bush's overall job approval was at 48 percent, with 50 percent disapproving - basically unchanged from a month ago.
The dynamics of firing an incumbent include rejection and remorse in an ever-escalating cycle. The new guy will have to be an acceptable alternative (Kerry's job) but first the doubts have to be established about the incumbent (48% job approval? Less than 50% in the recent polls does not bode well). And the 'perfect candidate' fantasy has to be put to rest, since such a person doesn't exist.
It's more important that Bush hasn't gained than Kerry. While Kerry hasn't made the sale, he's going to be the alternative, and Bush still has to overcome the events yet to come, including war, scandals and investigations, and perhaps more Republican desertions. And, please note, simply spending more money on ads won't get it done for Junior.
Update [2004-4-9 12:24:54 by DemFromCT]:More of the same from ARG (thanks, paperbag), which has Kerry maintaining a 50% - 44% lead. Support for Kerry has strengthened among Democrats since March. Independents are less apt to say they would vote for Nader compared to March. These are registered voters. Always read the details.