Today is May 13, 2008, and West Virginia, a state that matters like all the rest, is going to the polls.
We already know this will be a bad day for Barack Obama in the pledged delegate count. But I encourage those of you tempted to harbor bad feelings for a state because it doesn't support the candidate I favor and most of you favor not to do so. See the big picture, and get a smile on your face.
The talkers on TV don't matter. What matters is that the incredibly effective team running Barack Obama's presidential campaign has executed a masterful plan from the beginning all the way to the nomination. They don't get too high, they don't get too low, they don't leak. They just like, respect and believe in their guy.
The bottom line is this. Barack Obama is going to give an acceptance speech on Thursday, August 28, 2008 in Denver, Colorado that is going to make you god damn proud to be an American. Non-citizens will see that while America can fail its ideals sometimes, the best of what America can produce is still pretty magnificent too.
So West Virginia, you matter.
Update, late Tuesday night: So, WV went exactly as predicted. I'm still not counting that Maryland pledged jerkstore who switched Clinton to Obama. Obama also gained another super in the 2024.5 count and 2 supers in the 2208.5 count.
Thus, as of late Tuesday night our Magic Numbers with a 79 pledged delegate baseline in the remaining 5 contests and counting 6 Pelosi Club are:
Using 2024.5: 57
Using 2208.5, Obama gets 31 from MI: 142
Using 2208.5, Obama gets 55 from MI: 112
Using 2208.5, Obama gets 59 from MI: 108
From a pool of:
- Undeclared regular supers (186.5 or 215.5)
- Undeclared add-ons (49 or 53)
- Overperforming pledged delegates in OR(30), KY(17), PR(15), SD(8), MT(9)
- Edwards pledged delegates (19 or 32/37)
- In the 31 from MI scenario, the 19 uncommitted state level pledged delegates selected June 14.
I'm not going to do a results tracker for West Virginia. There are three CDs, all of them 6-delegates. Clinton is virtually guaranteed 4-2 splits by going over the 58.3% mark. She needs to hit 75% even to get a 5-1 split, and I think she may well hit that in WV-3. So, 12-6 or 13-5 in the CDs. PLEO will be 2-1, and at-large statewide will be 5-2 unless Obama gets to 35.8% statewide (then 4-3).
Basically, Obama's best case is hitting that 35.8% statewide and avoiding any 5-1 CD splits, and then he loses 18-10. His worst case is losing two 5-1 splits (CD-3 and CD-1) and losing 21-7.
Personally, I think he'll get 4-2 in CD-1 but lower than 35.8% statewide, and the question will be can he lose only 19-9 rather than 20-8.
To put this in perspective, here are a handful of other lopsided states:
For Obama:
Alaska 9-4
Georgia 60-27
Idaho 15-3
Kansas 23-9
Nebraska 16-8
Hawaii 14-6
For Clinton:
Arkansas 27-8
Oklahoma 24-14
Even though we've been over this before, a day like today is a nice day to revisit the math because it shows you how competent and effective the Obama campaign has been from the start.
I went through and looked at all the pledged delegates yesterday, trying to isolate the differences between the Obama results center count and DCW (which uses the Green Papers) and with NBC (whose Chuck Todd works very hard on getting the numbers right). The discrepancies:
1. Colorado. Obama and Green Papers have it 36-19, NBC has it 35-20. Halfway through the Colorado District Conventions (CDs 3, 4 and 5 still to go) and the original CD splits are holding. However, it is the statewide PLEO that is right on the cusp (Obama was getting 5 but the number was at a precarious 4.508). We won't know until this weekend when Colorado has its statewide convention whether 36-19 will hold. We did learn that Rep. DeGette, a Clinton super, is basically saying she's switching, a change that kind of went under the radar.
2. Dems Abroad. Obama has it 5-2, NBC 4-3, and Green Papers 4.5-2.5. I think Green Papers has this one also.
3. Iowa. Obama has it 24-14 with 7 Edwards, so does Green Papers. NBC is the odd one out, having not shifted back from 25-14-6. This is just oversight, no real controversy.
4. Louisiana. Green Papers has it 33-23 and link to the official Louisiana source. Obama and NBC have it 34-22.
5. North Carolina. Obama and Green Papers agree with the election night tracking diary we did last week, 66-49. NBC is only off because it hasn't fully allocated a few delegates, and in fairness given how very, very close several CDs are, provisionals could change some of these numbers. What happened there was USA Today suckered us all in by breaking down the vote by district, getting too many blog eyes including mine to pay attention to its updates, which were slow. Meanwhile, the NC State Board of Elections site was by far the best and had each CD's breakdown. So while news orgs and bloggers were behind, the actual bureaucracy was way ahead of us all. Funny.
6. Texas. NBC and Obama still have the caucus 38-29, but Green Papers has it 37-30 per the Burnt Orange Report's diligent tracking. So the overall Texas number is 98-95 Obama rather than 99-94. One convention step left in a few weeks, obviously, but I'll defer to the excellent work of BOR.
7. Washington state. Obama has it 53-25, but NBC and Green Papers have it 52-26. Again, the link to the Washington Dems party source is persuasive, so Green Papers gets the nod.
Those are the only pledged delegate discrepancies, and in all cases a little examination gave me confidence that Green Papers (and DCW because they use Green Papers as the definitive source, leaving the sloppier AP) has the pledged delegate count correct. That means you can be confident in the DKos running table for pledged delegates.
As for supers, I tend to think that Obama and NBC's 276.5 number for Clinton supers, which is 6 higher than DCW's 270.5, is accurate. I respect DCW's sourcing standards, but I treat Obama's acknowledgment of a higher number for Clinton as one would consider the testimony of a witness that went against personal interest.
I am mixed on the Maryland pledged delegate who switched. That offends my sense of fair play, even if it benefits my candidate. What I think will happen is that will stand, and I think by Denver and the actual roll call the delegates will be released to give Obama an easy win, but I am choosing not to use that number as the clinching number. If Obama wins by one pledged delegate and it's that guy, I would share the Camp Clinton's sense of outrage. Clinton fans, I don't like your candidate, but I'm with you on that one.
So, the math, and the state of the race post-West Virginia.
(The following is predicated on Obama earning 8 pledged delegates out of WV, and ignoring the Maryland pledged delegate jackass.)
Using Nomination number 2024.5:
Pledged Delegates Needed for Majority: 28.5
Overall Delegates Needed for Majority: 143
Using Nomination number 2208.5, and stingily giving 67 FL and only 31 MI:
Pledged Delegates Needed for Majority: 87
Overall Delegates Needed for Majority: 223
Note: Michigan's PLEO and at-large pledged delegates undetermined, 19 are uncommitted, 26 for Clinton.
Using Nomination number 2208.5, and giving 67 FL and 55 MI:
Pledged Delegates Needed for Majority: 63
Overall Delegates Needed for Majority: 199
Using Nomination number 2208.5, and giving 67 FL and 59 MI:
Pledged Delegates Needed for Majority: 59
Overall Delegates Needed for Majority: 195
Before getting all up in arms, we obviously agree that elections held in territory where the candidates for office do not campaign or even have their names on the ballot are antithetical to the premise of democratic election itself. I am just doing this for the math. Relax.
Here are my bottom line predictions for Obama's pledged delegates after tonight:
Oregon (30):
CD 1: 4-3 Obama (needs 50% + 1)
CD 2: 3-2 Obama (needs 50% + 1)
CD 3: 6-3 Obama (needs 61.2% in Portland)
CD 4: 4-3 Obama (needs 50% + 1)
CD 5: 3-3 tie (58.3% is 4-2 threshold)
PLEO: 3-3 tie (58.3% statewide is 4-2 threshold)
at-large: 7-5 Obama (54.2% is statewide threshold)
Kentucky (13 + up to 5):
CD 1: 1-4 minimum
CD 2: 1-4 minimum
CD 3: 3-5 minimum
CD 4: 1-4 minimum
CD 5: 1-4 minimum
CD 6: 1-5 minimum
PLEO: 2-4 minimum
at-large: 3-8 minimum
However, Obama will not lose 38-13 statewide. He should be able to get above 43.25% in Louisville for a 4-4 split, he should be able to reach 30% and get 2-3 splits in at least two, possibly all four 5-del districts. I would peg Obama's KY takeaway at 17 pledged delegates.
Montana (9):
Eastern Montana: 3-2 Obama
Western Montana: 3-2 Obama
PLEO 1-1 tie
at-large 2-2 tie
South Dakota (8):
CD-AL: 5-4 Obama
PLEO: 1-1 tie
at-large: 2-2 tie
There is a fair chance Obama goes over 62.5% statewide here and picks up 2 extra pledged delegates, 61.2% for a 6-3 CD split and 62.5% for a 3-1 statewide at-large split. But 8 minimum.
That's 64 pledged delegates bottom line going into Puerto Rico.
Puerto Rico has 8 districts plus the PLEO and at-large splits.
Dist 1: San Juan 6 dels, 2-4 minimum (25.1%)
Dist 2: Bayamón 5 dels, 1-4 minimum (15%)
Dist 3: Arecibo 4 dels, 1-3 minimum (15%)
Dist 4: Mayagüez 4 dels, 1-3 minimum (15%)
Dist 5: Ponce 4 dels, 1-3 minimum (15%)
Dist 6: Guayama 4 dels, 1-3 minimum (15%)
Dist 7: Humacao 4 dels, 1-3 minimum (15%)
Dist 8: Carolina 5 dels, 1-4 minimum (15%)
PLEO 7 dels: 2-5 minimum (21.5%)
at-large 12 dels: 4-8 minimum (29.2%)
Those pitifully low percentages get Obama to 15 pledged delegates in PR. Give me 30.1% in the two 5-del districts and add another pledged for each one. Get me to 37.51% in any of the five 4-del districts (a loss of just under 25% margin) and another pledged delegate. Get me to 35.8% islandwide and it's 3-4 in the PLEO. Get me to 37.51% islandwide and it's also 5-7 in the at-large.
So there is almost no way for Obama to get fewer than 79 pledged delegates in the 5 contests after tonight, and many ways for him to gain on that number. Let's see what 79 pledged does to our scenarios above.
Using Nomination number 2024.5:
Pledged Delegates Needed for Majority: Over by 50.5
Supers/Add-ons/Edwards Dels Needed for Majority: 64
[6 named add-ons undeclared, 43 unnamed add-ons undeclared]
Using Nomination number 2208.5, and stingily giving 67 FL and only 31 MI:
Pledged Delegates Needed for Majority: 8
19 Uncommitted MI pledged/Supers/Add-ons/Edwards Dels Needed for Majority: 144
[8 named add-ons undeclared, 45 unnamed add-ons undeclared]
Note: Michigan's PLEO and at-large pledged delegates undetermined, 19 are uncommitted, 26 for Clinton. Obama would need just 8 of these, or 8 minus any overperformance in WV(8), KY(17), OR(30), MT(9), SD(8), or PR(15).
Using Nomination number 2208.5, and giving 67 FL and 55 MI:
Pledged Delegates Needed for Majority: Over by 16
Supers/Add-ons/Edwards Dels Needed for Majority: 120
[8 named add-ons undeclared, 45 unnamed add-ons undeclared]
Using Nomination number 2208.5, and giving 67 FL and 59 MI:
Pledged Delegates Needed for Majority: Over by 20
Supers/Add-ons/Edwards Dels Needed for Majority: 116
[8 named add-ons undeclared, 45 unnamed add-ons undeclared]
Now, we know 6 Pelosi Club supers get triggered the moment Obama gets a majority of pledged delegates. Roy Romer came off that list today with his endorsement, but Nancy Pelosi (Rep.), Jimmy Carter (DPL), Christine Pelosi (DNC), Denise Johnson (DNC), Betty Richie (DNC) and Maria Cantwell (Sen.) are in that group, as Rep. Diana DeGette might also be (though she also referenced popular vote).
So let's run this again, with Pelosi Club:
Using Nomination number 2024.5:
Pledged Delegates Needed for Majority: Over by 50.5
Supers/Add-ons/Edwards Dels Needed for Majority: 58
[6 named add-ons undeclared, 43 unnamed add-ons undeclared]
Using Nomination number 2208.5, and stingily giving 67 FL and only 31 MI:
Pledged Delegates Needed for Majority: 8
19 Uncommitted MI pledged/Supers/Add-ons/Edwards Dels Needed for Majority: 144
[8 named add-ons undeclared, 45 unnamed add-ons undeclared]
Note: Michigan's PLEO and at-large pledged delegates undetermined, 19 are uncommitted, 26 for Clinton. Obama would need just 8 of these, or 8 minus any overperformance in WV(8), KY(17), OR(30), MT(9), SD(8), or PR(15).
Using Nomination number 2208.5, and giving 67 FL and 55 MI:
Pledged Delegates Needed for Majority: Over by 16
Supers/Add-ons/Edwards Dels Needed for Majority: 114
[8 named add-ons undeclared, 45 unnamed add-ons undeclared]
Using Nomination number 2208.5, and giving 67 FL and 59 MI:
Pledged Delegates Needed for Majority: Over by 20
Supers/Add-ons/Edwards Dels Needed for Majority: 110
[8 named add-ons undeclared, 45 unnamed add-ons undeclared]
Now we see the big picture. As much blathering as there has been about Florida and Michigan, Obama's worst-case floor of pledged delegates counting as-is would be 67 from Florida and 31 from Michigan. Even though some Clinton supporters argue for 0 for Obama from Michigan, Obama already got 31 of the 36 uncommitted pledged delegates at the district level conventions. Clinton has 10 PLEOs, 7 uncommitted. Clinton has 16 at-large, 12 uncommitted.
Under all scenarios, then, Obama will have enough pledged delegates for a majority, even with the small Edwards pool. There is simply no way Obama wouldn't get at least 8 of the 19 uncommitted statewide Michigan pledged delegates June 14. Notice that some in the Clinton camp say June 15 is the day we will know the nominee; that's probably because June 14 is the Michigan state convention where, if all else fails, Obama clinches even if Florida and Michigan are seated in full with no modification to their delegations.
To hit the Magic Number, using 8 pledged in WV, 79 baseline pledged in the 5 contests after tonight, and adding the 6 Pelosi Club endorsements, the remaining pool of delegates Obama can gain come from:
- Pledged delegate overachievement on WV(8), KY(17), OR(30), MT(9), SD(8), PR(15);
- Undeclared regular superdelegates (187.5 or 217.5);
- Add-ons (49 or 53);
- Edwards pledged delegates (19 or 32/37 - Edwards currently 5 in MI).
- (only applies to one scenario) 19 uncommitted Michigan statewide delegates June 14 assuming no deal brokered.
Here are the Magic Numbers.
Using 2024.5: 58
Using 2208.5, Obama gets 31 from MI: 144
Using 2208.5, Obama gets 55 from MI: 114
Using 2208.5, Obama gets 59 from MI: 110
By the time we hit Oregon, I'll have an updated set of Magic Numbers along with an Oregon Results Tracking Diary that night. This is not a results tracker for WV, partly because I won't be around tonight.
But remember, folks, have some softness in your heart for the people of West Virginia. They, and their state, matters. It is a guarantee you will be hit with anecdotes testifying to hostility to Obama, comments evincing racism and ignorance and all the rest. There will be plenty of people Vouching for the Other Guy's Bad Faith. Don't sell out your own good faith so easily. It may be hard to believe, but there are a lot more of us than there are Bad Faith Other Guys. I know this because Barack Obama is winning. In America.
Just let the paid conventional cynicism blather roll off your back. If we've learned anything, it's that one news cycle is meaningless. Let the Republicans be lulled to sleep with a sense that Obama is weak. Voter registration landslide, people.
Barack Obama said in Iowa:
I know you didn't do this for me. You did this -- you did this because you believed so deeply in the most American of ideas -- that in the face of impossible odds, people who love this country can change it.
I know this. I know this because while I may be standing here tonight, I'll never forget that my journey began on the streets of Chicago doing what so many of you have done for this campaign and all the campaigns here in Iowa, organizing and working and fighting to make people's lives just a little bit better.
I know how hard it is. It comes with little sleep, little pay and a lot of sacrifice. There are days of disappointment. But sometimes, just sometimes, there are nights like this; a night that, years from now, when we've made the changes we believe in, when more families can afford to see a doctor, when our children -- when Malia and Sasha and your children inherit a planet that's a little cleaner and safer, when the world sees America differently, and America sees itself as a nation less divided and more united, you'll be able to look back with pride and say that this was the moment when it all began.
Yes, there are days of disappointment. We are fighting to elect a man who will help us begin a lot of tough change.
Have charity and empathy in your heart. Ride soft tonight in your words. Be determined. We are winning, and we will win.
We are the ones we've been waiting for.