Newsweek has a poll out this weekend looking at several aspects of the Iraq conflict. Skipping over the issue for the moment of whether we think it's a bad or a worse thing to be there, what's the public thinking on this?
As usual, Polling Report serves up some data to chew on.
Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. April 8-9, 2004. N=1,005 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.
"We're interested in your opinion of the way George W. Bush is handling certain aspects of his job. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bush is handling the situation in Iraq?"
Approve Disapprove Don't Know
% % %
4/8-9/04 44 51 5
3/25-26/04 44 50 6
2/19-20/04 45 47 8
1/8-9/04 50 43 7
12/18-19/03 53 39 8
The 53% represents the peak after Saddam's capture. But despite doubts about Bush's handling of the war, the idea that we shouldn't be there has not taken hold.
"From what you know now, do think the United States did the right thing in taking military action against Iraq last year, or not?" Trend includes slight variation in wording.
RightThing NotRightThing Don'tKnow
% % %
4/8-9/04 57 39 4
3/25-26/04 55 41 4
3/18-19/04 57 37 6
1/29-30/04 55 39 6
Two other important questions are covered here:
"Would you support increasing the number of U.S. military personnel in Iraq, if necessary, in response to the recent attacks on coalition forces by Iraqi militants?"
WouldSupport WouldNotSupport Don'tKnow
% % %
4/8-9/04 63 31 6
"Do you think the United States should or should NOT extend the June 30th deadline for turning over power in Iraq to an interim Iraqi government?"
Should ShouldNot Don'tKnow
% % %
4/8-9/04 34 50 16
So at this moment, the public supports the concept of getting rid of Saddam, being in Iraq, 'winning' by increasing troops if needed, and sticking to the stated goals of turnover by 6/30/04.
What, therefore will happen if
- casualties continue to mount
- setbacks occur on the battlefiled
- the IGC collapses
- there is no one to hand power to in June
- evidence that there is a more extensive insurrection developing amongst the Shia, or that the Sunni and Shia unite in opposition
What would further happen if the dollar price tag is brought into the equation? Remember the reaction to the $87 billion speech? What would the public think then?
There is evidence for all of the above 'worst case' events happening.
Billmon and
Melanie have mentioned the use of the 'f' word (failure). From Billmon:
Here's a story that was filed yesterday by Knight Ridder's Warren Strobel:
As fighting continues, quest to bring democracy to Iraq nears failure
President Bush invaded Iraq hoping to spread democracy across the Middle East, but after the worst week of violence since Saddam Hussein was overthrown, he's now struggling to avoid a costly, humiliating defeat.
And here's how it appeared in the Inquirer:
A year later, Bush struggles as pressure grows
President Bush invaded Iraq hoping to spread democracy across the Middle East, but after the worst week of violence since Saddam Hussein was overthrown, he's now struggling to keep his plan from unraveling in the face of a widening uprising. (emphasis added)
I guess failure has become the new "f" word.
It is also clear that from the above numbers, even if Bush has succeeded in persuading the public (for now) of the righteousness of his cause, they will blame him personally if anything goes wrong. And they're not giving him high marks now. A tipping point has been reached on that subject.
It seems that based on everything we now know, things are not going as well as they could. Our allies are unhappy with our handling of things, and Bremer appears to have made things considerably worse (as Atrios points out, that "doesn't make him an evil guy - it makes him incompetent"). So the problem for the American people isn't the strategy, or the tactics (as important as they are). It's the success or failure of same, and regardless of the poll numbers, his party is getting increasingly nervous, and with good reason. They are ahead of the public on this. Bush's Presidency is literally hanging in the balance, and will sink or swim with events on the ground in Iraq.