I apologize for the abject pessimism of my previous Senate post... The data I had collected for the first batch of predicted outcomes were all skewed to the right and/or based on outdated information on the races.
Kossacks provided many corrections and updates based on local knowledge. I've updated based on all of the info given, although I've tried to be conservative, as it's too easy (for me) to start thinking about "what might be".
Based on the data in the updated chart, I'm feeling much more optimistic. There's a chance to win back the Senate. I would not bet money on it, as it involves many, many factors.
Updated numbers, and hope, follow in the extended copy.
What does become extremely apparent, however, is that in those places where we have a shot, we will need to pay to play... These states are critical:
Alaska: Polls show the Dem challenger, former Gov. Tony Knowles, leading the Republican incumbent 52 to 40% in July. This is a state were a little bit of money can go a long way. You don't have that many votes to influence. The Dems should spend it.
Missouri: Kit Bond is vulnerable, say locals. Recent polls put Dem challenger Nancy Farmer behind him, 38% to 51%, in early September. Would it be any better if Gephardt ran instead? It may be too late to even file, but if his presidential bid doesn't look like it's taking off, maybe he could deliver a Senate seat.
Oklahoma: Locals say that this seat is in play. I know nothing about OK politics, but I always thought of it as a fairly conservative state.
Illinois: People are saying that a local fatcat named Hull has enough bank to win the race for the Dems. Lets hope so. Conventional Wisdom is that this is the Dem's race to lose, as there is no incumbent, and the state leans left.
As for Democratic races: We cannot abandon the South. This settles the matter in my mind once and for all. Even if we can't win the Electoral vote in a particular state, whichever candidate wins is going to have to put time and effort into campaigning in at least 5 states: NC, SC, AR, FL, and LA. Dems are leading or have a chance to win in all 5. If we don't try there, we may lose those seats. How would you like to be President w/ both houses of Congress stacked against you? Talk about winning the battle and losing the war.
I've left states where people say "oh, that's a lock" for one candidate or another as Lean one way or another unless I could find poll data to back it up. For example, people think Daschle is a lock in ND, however in one of the polls I could find he leads his challenger by 1% point. Granted, the most recent #s show a 6% lead, but that is far from a lock. Overestimating the enemy is never as bad as underestimating him.
