I keep hearing members of the media saying: "President Obama said that if the economic stimulus bill was passed, unemployment would not go over 8%." As a matter of fact, I heard Sen. "Waterloo" say that TODAY on a Sunday morning show, unchallenged by either the host or the DINO sitting next to him. There is one small problem with this statement . . . it is simply NOT TRUE.
As a public service, and since the media seems incapable of using "the Google", I have done some RESEARCH to see WHAT is fueling this - here is what I found:
In a report issued by his economic advisors on January 10, 2009 (BEFORE Barack Obama was even sworn in as President), economic advisors Christina Romer and Jared Bernstein issued a report titled "The Job Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan". The VERY FIRST WORDS in the report are these:
"A key goal enunciated by the President-Elect concerning the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan is that it should save or create at least 3 million jobs by the end of 2010. For this reason, we have undertaken a preliminary analysis of the jobs effects of some of the prototypical recovery packages being discussed. Our analysis will surely evolve as we and other economists work further on this topic. The results will also change as the actual package parameters are determined in cooperation with the Congress."
http://otrans.3cdn.net/...
Got that? The report is a PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS of a PROTOTYPICAL PACKAGE which will EVOLVE. Could it be stated any more clearly than that?
Now, here is the statement that has somehow been taken out of this PRE- PRESIDENTIAL report and put into the President’s mouth, as if by magic:
"First, the likely scale of employment loss is extremely large. The U.S. economy has already lost nearly 2.6 million jobs since the business cycle peak in December 2007. In the absence of stimulus, the economy could lose another 3 to 4 million more. Thus, we are working to counter a potential job loss of at least 5 million. As Figure 1 shows, even with the large prototypical package, the unemployment rate in 2010Q4 is predicted to be approximately 7.0%, which is well below the approximately 8.8% that would result in the absence of the plan.
Second, as emphasized above, there is considerable uncertainty in our estimates: both the impact of the package on GDP and the relationship between higher GDP and job creation are hard to estimate precisely. . ."
Once again, it is CLEARLY STATED that these are ESTIMATES and LIKELY to be incorrect. So why is the media pretending like the President predicted definitively that the stimulus would keep unemployment under 8% when he NEVER DID?
The unemployment rate in January 2009 was 7.6%, so CLEARLY nobody in there RIGHT MIND thought that the Stimulus package was going to be able to hold it under 8%. The stimulus bill wasn’t signed into law until mid February . . . the unemployment rate then was ALREADY 8.1%.
The bulk of the stimulus money has still NOT BEEN SPENT, so trying to decide how successful it has been is clearly a POLITICAL exercise, not an economic one. I don’t have problem with those who criticize the President’s economic plans. But do so based on the TRUTH, not lies.
(Note: I originally posted this in the comments section of the First Read blog, where I comment frequently. I thought it was worth posting in this form so it could be cross referenced and maybe even seen by someone who could actually get this info out so that Democrats [like Vice President Biden of "we misjudged the economy" fame] can stop letting this talking point be repeated as if it were true.)
