Listening to the media coverage over the past several months, haven't you gotten the impression that the Democrats need 60 votes to pass health care without using reconciliation? Only if 60 Democrats vote for health care can they avoid the Republican filibuster, right?
Wrong.
Repeat after me: Democrats need 50 votes plus Joe Biden to pass health care, even without using reconciliation. What they need 60 votes for is not the health care bill itself -- it's the CLOTURE vote to end the filibuster on health care. It's a separate motion entirely.
It's entirely plausible that the naysaying Democratic senators could vote for cloture but against the bill. The Ben Nelsons and Max Baucuses might or might not have the political balls to vote for a health care bill that includes a public option. But they could be pressured to vote for cloture. They might even WANT to vote for cloture but just need to cover their asses politically on the actual health care bill vote. It could be a nice compromise if their record showed that they officially voted against the bill (appeasing the conservatives back home) but effectively supported the passage of the bill by voting for cloture (appeasing their conscience).
Recently, some senators have voted for cloture but against a bill. His holy unctuousness Joe Lieberman voted against bankruptcy reform in 2005 but voted for cloture, effectively helping to pass the bill despite his vote. Several senators voted against the confirmation of Samuel Alito but voted for cloture, effectively supporting Alito's confirmation.
We all need to stop thinking that all is lost without reconciliation. Reconciliation is a nice back-up option, but whatever could pass through reconciliation would likely be a watered-down version of the health care reform we are looking for. Instead, what we need to be focused on is getting 60 senators to vote for cloture and thereby block the Republican filibuster. Admittedly, this will likely mean that we need to wait for the new Massachusetts senator to arrive, unless we could get someone like Olympia Snowe to vote for cloture. But the truth of what needs to be achieved is a MUCH more feasible political goal than is generally reported. Getting 60 votes for a public option would be nearly impossible, but getting 60 votes for cloture is feasible.
The media loves to push the idea that health care is lost, that the Democrats are impotent, and that the Republicans are resurgent even as they lie dying. It's bullshit, and they are fostering defeatism among many health care reform proponents. We can fight back and change the discussion by focusing on the need for just 50 votes for health care reform and on the need for 60 votes for cloture.
http://mediamatters.org/...