While Joe Lieberman finds new and exciting ways to screw over the Democratic Party (wow, I wish we had listened to this moron two years ago), there is no shortage of campaign news as we are now within one week of Election Day 2009.
NJ-Gov: New Polls All Over Map--New Numbers Coming Tomorrow?
A pair of new surveys in the tight New Jersey gubernatorial election give Chris Christie a little bit of oxygen after a fairly long and fairly precipitous slide. Rasmussen has the Republican getting back to a three point edge over Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine (46-43-7). Meanwhile, the guys at PPP (PDF file) are even more pessimistic, giving Christie a four-point edge (42-38-13). Both polls represent an improvement of 1-3 points for Christie over previous numbers from the same pollsters. The PPP poll, it has to be pointed out, has an awfully rough looking sample for Dems--they have Obama's job approval in the state at just 47%, far lower than anyone else has had recently. Interestingly, in a departure from every other pollster, PPP implies that Christie, and not Corzine, would benefit from a strong Daggett vote. They claim that Daggett's vote is far more Democratic than Republican. Of course, a Suffolk University poll yesterday painted a very different picture of the race, which had Corzine leading by 9. No doubt, these three pollsters are defining "likely voters" quite differently. The "tiebreaker" may well come tomorrow, as we already know (thanks to a tweet from Taegan Goddard) that Quinnipiac (whose polling in this race has been pretty solid, neither too high nor too low) will post their numbers on Wednesday.
VA-Gov: New Polling Numbers Bad--Obama Visit Good
It has been something of an up-and-down day today for Virginia's Democratic gubernatorial nominee, Creigh Deeds. He got a high-profile hand from President Barack Obama, who stumped for the candidate today, appearing before a crowd of nearly six thousand people in Norfolk. But that stirring moment came on the same day that two new polls cast doubts on Deeds' ability to mount a comeback against Republican Bob McDonnell. SurveyUSA actually has Deeds slightly closer than they did in their previous poll a few weeks back. That is small comfort, however, as they still have the Democrat down by 17 points (58-41). The team at PPP polled the state, as well, and also found the race getting away from Deeds. They have McDonnell out in front by 15 points (55-40). More pessimistic news for Democrats, both polls found double-digit leads for Republicans downticket, as well.
NY-23: Another Right-Wing Internal Poll Claims Hoffman Lead
Another day, another right-wing interest group hiring a pollster to say that their guy has taken the lead while the Republican nominee (a dirty RINO in their eyes) is tanking. This one came from Neighborhood Research, which has done a few polls in New Jersey but little else. They claim that Conservative Party standard bearer Doug Hoffman leads with 34%, followed by Democrat Bill Owens at 29%. This poll, unlike others that have implied a real three-candidate race, claims that Republican DeDe Scozzafava is out of the race, winning just 14% of the vote. While this poll does have a "consider the source" feel to it, there is something to the fact that the GOP nominee's campaign may well be tanking bad enough to not split the right-of-center vote. As DK Contributing Editor (and Swing State Project founder) DavidNYC noted last night, Owens and Hoffman appear to be absolutely destroying Scozzafava at the cash register. On the polling front, check out this interesting point/counterpoint from two of the best known figures in the polling game: Nate Silver of 538 and Mark Blumenthal at Pollster. The question: is yesterday's internal poll showing Hoffman out front legit? Silver is dubious, Blumenthal less so.
OH-Gov: Strickland Leads In 2010 Tilt, But It's Close
According to a new poll from the University of Cincinnati that was published over the weekend, Democratic incumbent Ted Strickland has a very modest lead over Republican John Kasich in their potential match-up in 2010. Among "definite" voters, Strickland clings to a three-point lead (49-46). Among registered voters, it is even closer: a single point (48-47). This poll does raise one eyebrow, as it seems unlikely that Ohio voters are quite this confident about their votes (only 5% undecided with thirteen months to go?). In a related question, a pro-casino provision (Issue 3) on the ballot next week is currently leading, but it is in a bit of a danger zone (55-41 among definite voters).
THE RACE FOR THE HOUSE: How Vulnerable Are Dems in 2010?
A fascinating analysis (one that replicates past studies done by the same unit in 2006 and 2008) from the team at Democracy Corps looks at the question of Democratic vulnerability in 2010. Their basic thesis: the Democrats will likely lose seats, but it is unlikely to be nearly as bad as the punditocracy seems eager to predict. The pollsters are projecting a loss of 15-20 seats, based on polling done in 20 imperiled Republican districts and 55 imperiled Democratic districts. In the Republican seats, the GOP holds a 47-39 lead, which implies that at least a couple of those will fall. In the "Tier I" Democratic seats (the 20 most vulnerable Dems), Democrats hold a slight edge (47-44). In the "Tier II" Democratic seats (the next 20 most vulnerable Dems), the Democrats do only slightly better (48-44). Checking the GOP "wave" theory, the folks at Democracy Corps introduced a Tier III group of Democrats, an additional 15 Dems thought to be in potential peril. That group still appears out of reach for the GOP (50-38 Dem).
IN OTHER NEWS....
- Interesting question to ponder--is the superpower of professional wrestling, the WWE, trying to sanitize their product in order to avoid negative attention for CEO, and Senate aspirant, Linda McMahon?
- Election 2010 officially kicked off yesterday, as the filing window opened for candidates in the state of Illinois. Their deadline, the first filing deadline in the nation, comes in December, in advance of a February primary.
- Some solid investigative local blogging in Colorado has unearthed a bunch of rather unsavory connections for likely GOP Senate nominee Jane Norton.
- Far-right U.S. Senator Jim Inhofe has made another Senate endorsement in a contested primary he likes Kansas Republican Todd Tiahrt over fellow Congressman Jerry Moran in the battle to replace Sam Brownback.
- This is hardly a shocker--but Joe Lieberman's 3075th betrayal of the Democratic Party has already led to talks of an attempt to take him out politically in 2012, and a familiar face is getting a lot of attention today.
- In addition to Virginia, New Jersey, the two specials (NY-23 and, lest we forget, CA-10), and the ballot initiatives in Maine, there are a lot of mayoral elections on tap for next Tuesday. A diarist over at Swing State Project looks at the battles for City Hall. In related news, Democrats did one little bit of good polling news: after being led mostly by Republicans in recent decades, Democrat Anthony Foxx is at least even money to score the victory in Charlotte, North Carolina next week.
