There is a good deal of talk that Bush will engage in rapid withdrawal from Iraq and declare victory for political reasons next spring. I don't think this is likely
as I discuss in
blog. The major reason why Bush would want to pull out of Iraq before next summer would be to get the Iraq issue off the table, which means getting the casualties off the table. However the fundamental problem that I see with a pullout is that it would expose large, slow, and mechanically balky convoys to a few narrow, predictable routes with plenty of natural and urban chokepoints. This is a recipe for a very bad month of hit and run attacks and lots of casualties. Right now the US has the ability to stay in fortified compounds and firebases for self protection. If it was to undertake a rapid withdrawal, it would have to go through the cities and abandon its firebases which increases vulnerablity to attack.
Finally, as another political message; imagine that the US withdraws quickly and reasonably succsessfully. The week after, we get a live tape of Saddam Hussein walking through Tikrit with that day's New York Times, and Washington Times in his hand. That would destroy Bush politically.
So I do not think that the politics of withdrawal really make sense, and politics are the only thing that Rove et al are concerned about.
