Here's a big development with potential implications for the 2010 U.S. Senate race in Arkansas: according to an SEIU official, SEIU is joining forces with other unions to work to retire the campaign debt of Arkansas Lt. Governor Bill Halter from his Lt. Gov. race.
As you may know, Halter has been considering challenging Blanche Lincoln for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. Although SEIU's move does not directly endorse such a challenge -- the SEIU official says the union is taking this action because they believe Halter "has a very bright political future" -- eliminating Halter's campaign debt clears the path for him to focus exclusively on a U.S. Senate campaign. (Update: For the sake of clarity, the SEIU official was commenting on Halter's future in general, not with respect to any particular race, and did not raise the Senate race.)
Earlier this week, SEIU began airing ads against Gilbert Baker, a potential Republican nominee, a move that had been interpreted as a show of support for Lincoln and an attempt to scare off Halter. Whether that was ever the case, with today's news, it seems clear that SEIU is encouraging, not discouraging, Halter.
Halter -- who has not announced whether he will run -- is polling well against Lincoln. In a Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll completed at the beginning of the month, Lincoln led Halter 42%-26% among Democratic primary voters, a very poor showing for an incumbent U.S. Senator against a lesser-known and unannounced candidate.
The root of Lincoln's problems appears to be her opposition to a public option. When voters were asked who they would support if she joined a filibuster of the public option, her lead shrunk to 37%-27%.
Perhaps most importantly, the poll suggested that Halter would have a better chance of keeping the seat in Democratic hands than Lincoln. Although Lincoln performed marginally better than Halter in head-to-head matchups with Republicans, that difference is almost entirely explained by the fact that she is better-known than Halter. As kos explained:
In all these matchups, the biggest bloc of undecideds are Democrats. If they turn out (a challenge in and of itself), they will come home to Halter. I'd further argue that Democrats will be more likely to turn out for Halter than they will for Lincoln, who is working overtime to screw over Obama and her Senate Democratic colleagues.
The other big undecided bloc are independents. As noted above, Halter already has better favorability numbers among independent voters. And given the anti-incumbency mood around the country this cycle, particularly pronounced among independent voters, which Democrat do you think they'd be more likely to support? The entrenched incumbent DC-politician, Lincoln, or Halter, who is sort of a rebel and comes from outside the Arkansas establishment?
This poll shows that Lincoln's obstructionism, rather than bolster her standing in Arkansas, is actually hurting her more. She has slid against the opposition, losing ground with all groups -- Democrats, Republicans, and Independents. Her clumsy bungling of the health care issue stands in stark contrast with her colleague, Sen. Mark Pryor, who remains in positive favorability territory, 48-38.
Halter has been an outspoken proponent of health care reform, including a strong public option. In November, Lawrence O'Donnell interviewed Halter to discuss the Countdown viewer-sponsored free health clinic in Little Rock. If you haven't seen Halter before, here's video of that interview:
