I continue to read a number posts on this site about Dean's near-certain nomination and his chances to become our next President. His supporters are excited and I understand that, but they are missing three points that should bear some examination:
1. Dean's short-term strengths are long-term weaknesses
Right now being against the Iraq war from the beginning looks pretty good, but it won't in July. Just look at a recent finding by The Democracy Corps poll:
"The country still wants to continue the Bush direction on the war on terrorism. (64 to the 32 percent who want significant change). While the country is looking for change and increasingly, new leadership, it is not seeking an anti-war President. Large majorities of the country think it was right to remove Saddam Hussein."
Dean may be able to gain 30% of the Democratic electorate in liberal states, but he cannot expand that base - even among our own party, much less independents and moderate Republicans. Being anti-war after 9/11 is much like being anti-war after Pearl Harbor.
2. Being right on Iraq is not enough
Bush has stumbled badly in Iraq, but being against the Pentagon's imperial designs is not enough. The 2004 election will, in large part turn on the larger issue of national security. Dean has zero credentials in this area. Even worse, his ties with the national security establishment are non-existent. Career security operatives know a great deal of damaging information on our Iraq fiasco. Much of it is confidential or classified. This includes people like Rand Beers and Joe Wilson, who are working for Kerry. The Joe Wilson/CIA flap is just the opening round of a real battle between the neo-cons and the spooks. It will take "deep-throat" type information to get the goods on Bush and to expose the folly of his current policy. Dean just does not have the connections to gain such valuable intelligence.
3. The Rove/Bush attack machine is loaded and lethal
Whoever is the eventual nominee of our party will face one of the most imposing forces ever assembled in American politics. It's not about speeches and balloons. It is about prying the government apparatus from the hands of a group of thugs who disenfranchised thousands of black voters in Florida - who control the Supreme Court, the Department of Defense and the FBI. They are supported by the most powerful corporations in America and a quarter of a billion dollars, and even more if they need it.
During the last election cycle they smeared Senator Max Cleland - a true American hero, who left body parts on the battlefield. He was made to look "soft on terrorism". I know the entire U. S. is not Georgia, but just imagine what they will do to Dr. Dean and his anti-war crusade. Our nominee will need a strong inoculation against such tactics. This would favor Kerry and Clark.
I have nothing against Howard Dean. I think he is a good man and I admire the way he has built an effective campaign. But if you really want to defeat George Bush in 2004, you had better start thinking beyond today's polls. This will be a very difficult campaign and our failure could be a disaster for America and for the Democratic Party.
