Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 6/8-10. Likely voters. MoE: ±4%. No trendlines.
Jim Doyle (D-inc) 48
Scott Walker (R) 36
Undecided 16
Jim Doyle (D-inc) 49
Mark Neumann (R) 35
Undecided 16
Jim Doyle (D-inc) 45
Tommy Thompson (R) 47
Undecided 8
Incumbent Gov. Jim Doyle has an unlovely 43-48 approval rating, yet he's still close to the 50% mark against his likeliest opponents, Milwaukee Co. Executive Scott Walker and former WI-01 Rep. Mark Neumann. As is typical for candidates like Walker and Neumann this far out from election day, neither is terribly well known - half the sample has no opinion of Walker, while a third doesn't know Neumann.
Meanwhile, former Gov. Tommy Thompson remains pretty popular (54-36), but only holds Doyle to a dead heat. Perhaps Obama's 14-point thumping of John McCain is a signal that Wisconsin's politics have changed - or maybe voters are just tired of Tommy, who was elected to an unprecedented four terms and then, after an ineffectual stint in the Bush cabinet, made a fool of himself with an embarrassing presidential run.
My gut is that the 67-year-old Thompson, who has been toying with a run, won't get in. Thing is, Doyle (who's already served two terms) might bow out as well. So we also tested his most likely replacement, Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton:
Barbara Lawton (D) 44
Scott Walker (R) 35
Undecided 21
Barbara Lawton (D) 43
Mark Neumann (R) 35
Undecided 22
Barbara Lawton (D) 44
Tommy Thompson (R) 46
Undecided 10
Lawton, who holds a 35-17 favorability rating, fares quite well. Indeed, her numbers are almost identical to Walker's 33-16 favorables. The fact that she starts off with a natural nine-point advantage does suggest that something fundamental may indeed have changed in Wisconsin. (If so, thanks, Republicans!)
We also took a look at the Senate race, where Russ Feingold is up for re-election. While Feingold often makes things a lot more interesting than they have to be (he's never won with more than 55% of the vote), he looks to be in command at this point:
Russ Feingold (D-inc) 53
Paul Ryan (R) 32
Undecided 15
Russ Feingold (D-inc) 52
Mark Green 34
Undecided 14
Rep. Paul Ryan (WI-01), something of a GOP rising star, has more or less ruled out a run against Feingold. And former Rep. Mark Green, who lost the 2006 gov race against Doyle, is working for an anti-malaria non-profit in DC, following up on his stint as US ambassador to Tanzania. He says he's not "seeking out" any return to elective office at this time.
And therein lies the real story for Russ Feingold: the Republican cupboard in Wisconsin is pretty bare. We surveyed Ryan and Green largely because no other serious names have come forward. Feingold may get very lucky indeed next year.
