This is just a quick update to add some interpretation to what might be going on with the latest developments. For starters, this picture, which is headlined on the Huffington Post, comes from Isfahan. The significance here, is that the massive rallies are not confined to Tehran. It would be very interesting to know if there were massive rallies like this in cities like Shiraz and Mashad.
At this point, you have probably heard about Ayatollah Montazeri's statement. The points to draw from this are many. Here is the text once again; it is a fabulously concise statement:
In the name of God
People of Iran
These last days, we have witnessed the lively efforts of you brothers and sisters, old and young alike, from any social category, for the 10th presidential elections.
Our youth, hoping to see their rightful will fulfilled, came on the scene and waited patiently. This was the greatest occasion for the government’s officials to bond with their people.
But unfortunately, they used it in the worst way possible. Declaring results that no one in their right mind can believe, and despite all the evidence of crafted results, and to counter people protestations, in front of the eyes of the same nation who carried the weight of a revolution and 8 years of war, in front of the eyes of local and foreign reporters, attacked the children of the people with astonishing violence. And now they are attempting a purge, arresting intellectuals, political opponents and Scientifics.
Now, based on my religious duties, I will remind you :
1- A legitimate state must respect all points of view. It may not oppress all critical views. I fear that this lead to the lost of people’s faith in Islam.
2- Given the current circumstances, I expect the government to take all measures to restore people’s confidence. Otherwise, as I have already said, a government not respecting people’s vote has no religious or political legitimacy.
3- I invite everyone, specially the youth, to continue reclaiming their dues in calm, and not let those who want to associate this movement with chaos succeed.
4- I ask the police and army personals not to "sell their religion", and beware that receiving orders will not excuse them before god. Recognize the protesting youth as your children. Today censor and cutting telecommunication lines can not hide the truth.
I pray for the greatness of the Iranian people.
- The clergy is far from the monolithic group that many to believe it to be. Clearly, his short and unequivocal statement from yesterday reflects a very different viewpoint.
- Although Montazeri was regarded for some time to be Khomenei's replacement, he lost out in the power struggle to Khamenei. That does not mean that there are not a number of clerics now willing to support him.
- Many clerics fear the "Greens" may truly desire the fall of the Islamic Republic; many rank and file among the religious supporters of Ahmadinejad may share that fear. The appearance of an Islamic Alternative presents a viable opportunity to transition away from Khamenei's hard-line stance without losing the Islamic Republic. Ayatollah Montazeri is a man the devout can easily follow.
In other important developments, it appears that the Assembly of Experts, the group of clerics who choose the Supreme Leader have been called to meet in Qom. The following is posted on Huffington Post, and was apparently reported by CNN:
There are very interesting things that are taking place right now. Some of my sources in Iran have told me that Ayatollah Rafsanjani, who is the head of the Assembly of Experts -- the eighty-six member clerical body that decides who will be the next Supreme Leader, and is, by the way, the only group that is empowered to remove the Supreme Leader from power -- that they have issued an emergency meeting in Qom.
Now, Anderson, I have to tell you, there's only one reason for the Assembly of Experts to meet at this point, and that is to actually talk about what to do about Khamenei. So, this is what I'm saying, is that we're talking about the very legitimacy, the very foundation of the Islamic Republic is up in the air right now. It's hard to say what this is going to go.
I have written extensively about Rafsanjani, and while he is a corrupt politician and I do not particularly care for him; he is definitely a deal maker. If the Assembly of Experts meet, they could come to some decisions about how to resolve this mess. They are a counterweight to Khamenei's substantive power and they are a large body. If they come to definitive conclusions then Iran might move closer to a solution that all parties can accept. In general, an arrangement brokered by a body like this is preferable to bringing down the Islamic Republic. Such an action (bringing down the Islamic Republic), while not necessarily at all possible, would be tremendously de-stabilizing for Iran and the region as well. Despite the protests and the violence, make no mistake, Ahmadinejad has a great deal of support, and his supporters must also be able to see the reason of any arrangement.
It is vital to remember that Iran, as a whole, is a much more Conservative and Religious society than Europe or the United States.. They are moving to adopt modernity and maintain their traditional aspects that are part of their identity and culture.
UPDATE: Thanks for the Rec List--It always means a great deal to me.
Also, Here's a chart of the governemnt structure that has been in previous diaries--I think many will find it useful:
