By Stephen Yellin
Hey Kossacks,
Yeah, I know what you're thinking - it's Idaho. One of the reddest states in the country, with the days of leaders like Frank Church and Cecil Andrus long in the past, the state has just one statewide Democratic official (Marilyn Howard, the retiring Superintendent of Schools) and no Democrats serving in Congress. But in 2006, things are beginning to pick up for Idaho Democrats, as Congressman "Butch" Otter (ID-01) is running for Governor. His open Congressional seat could, under the right circumstances vote Democratic, as it did for Larry LaRocco in 1990 and 1992. What are those conditions?
*A contentious, damaging Republican primary
*A controversial, lightening-rod Republican nominee who scares members of his own party.
*A moderate Democratic challenger who has enough funds to exploit the rifts in the Idaho Republicans.
All of these factors COULD (the operative word here) occur in Idaho-01 in 2006. Read on to discover the mayhem, the madness and the "maybes" of Idaho...
The Republicans have six candidates running to succeed Otter, and they are busy taking potshots at each other with every opportunity. There is a distinct possibility that one of the two "lightening-rod" Republicans will emerge as the nominee (and boy, do they give new meaning to the words "nut job"), including one that is bitterly opposed by Idaho's other Republican Congressman. And Idaho Democrats have a solid candidate in Larry Grant, a former executive with the state's largest employer, Micron Technology.
"Otter's succession sparks a family feud in Idaho" - That was the headline that caught my eye this evening at "The Hill", one of the major political papers in Washington. As http://www.thehill.com/... will show you, the GOP candidates running to succeed Congressman "Butch" Otter are an eclectic mix indeed. You've got:
*A pro-choice, moderate State Senator, Sheila Sorenson. If she somehow survives her party's primary, she wouldn't be that bad compared to the other guys in the race.
*State Comptroller Keith Johnson. The leading "mainstream" candidate, he has some organizational support, such as ex-Governor Phil Batt. A possible "safe" choice for Idaho Republicans.
*Norman Semanko, a former aide to Senator Larry Craig. He hasn't gotten Craig's endorsement, preventing him from breaking out of his "safety choice" pack with Johnson and State Senator Skip Brandt.
*Skip Brandt, a State Senator. He has only $4,000 COH, making him unlikely to win.
And now we come to the two "lightening rods" in the race. That term is probably a bit of an understatement, as you shall see. They are:
*Robert Vasquez, a County Commissioner whose slogan, if you go to his website, is: "Secure our borders - Secure our future". He is on record as stating that the greatest problem in America is not Iraq, not the Economy, not even "The War on Terror". It's keeping immigrants out of the country. Think of him as an Idaho version of Pat Buchanan.
*Speaking of ex-GOP Presidential candidates, Alan Keyes would feel right at home with the other GOP candidate: State Representative Bill Sali. Mr. Sali, it seems is not afraid of expressing his opinions. Of course, when those opinions involve this...
(from The Hill article)
"Sali's critics pointed to an incident earlier this month in which he insisted on discussing studies linking abortion to breast cancer during a debate on a bill to require doctors to inform women about abortion-related risks. The Idaho House Democratic leader, a survivor of breast cancer, walked out in tears, and her Democratic colleagues followed her.
The Idaho GOP leaders postponed the day's business. The Speaker, Bruce Newcomb, told The Idaho Statesman, "That idiot is just an absolute idiot. He doesn't have one ounce of empathy in his whole fricking body. And you can put that in the paper.""
In short, Bill Sali would make an excellent Representative for the Republic...the People's Republic of China, that is. I think I'm right in saying that while being an insensitive ass isn't a 1st Amendment violation, it still makes you an insensitive ass. There's a lot more on Sali in the article, including the fact that Idaho Republicans are scared stiff about him being the nominee (including Congressman Mike Simpson, who loathes Sali from their Statehouse days). The same is true with Vasquez, due to his single-issue harping in a state that borders Canada.
For now, these six candidates are gearing up for what should be a contentious and rough primary. State Republicans are worried about low turnout helping either Vasquez or Sali, as this article from the Idaho Statesman reports:
http://www.idahostatesman.com/...
The big "if" is whether Vasquez or Sali can emerge as the nominee. If they do - and if they've had to spend their money on the primary, which is almost certainly true - then Larry Grant has a window of opportunity. Idaho's 1st District gave Bush 68% in 2004, so clearly it's going to be hard to win. In fact, it's almost as hard as winning the seat in 1990, two years after George Bush, Sr. won 64% in the district.
Oops, wait a second. We did win that one - and Larry LaRocco served two terms as a Democratic Congressman from Idaho. He lost in the GOP tide of 1994, of course. And Congressman Richard Stallings (now ID Democratic Chairman) served ID-02 from 1985-1993, before running unsuccessfully for the US Senate.
In short, Idaho is not averse to electing Democrats - it's just a matter of good candidates, good strategic positioning - and a little bit of luck.
Larry Grant may well fill out all three of these criteria by November 7th (well, the luck part will have to wait a bit). Admittedly, much of the situation is out of his control; if Sorenson or one of the "safety" guys wins, then it's unlikely he can pull it off. But against Vasquez or Sali, his chances go up astronomically.
Grant is realistic about the race, as he told me over the phone this evening. "You have to imagine Idaho as being in the South," he said. In other words, don't look for an automatic pickup in November, even if Vasquez or Sali get the nomination. Grant is going to have to fight hard, raise enough cash to get his message out (he's raised $78,000 so far, with $40,000 COH) and place himself at the center of the political spectrum. He wouldn't be a lock-step Democrat for sure; then again, neither is Utah's Jim Matheson or North Dakota's Earl Pomeroy, but they vote for Nancy Pelosi just as well.
You can read more about Grant at http://www.grantforcongress.com/.... He also has a regularly updated blog at http://larrygrant.typepad.com/... , which a staffer tends to. He recently held his second "forum", and you can read his responses on the blog as well. Let me be clear that I have no connection with Grant or his campaign; my only concern is to help get Democrats elected across this nation. If we're serious about a "50-State Strategy", then we've got to play in all fifty states, even if they're as Republican as Idaho.
As a final note, if you want to look at other Democratic candidates in Idaho this year (and there are some good ones, including the son of ex-Congressman Orval Hansen, Jim Hansen in ID-02), and Gubernatorial candidate Jerry Brady), then go to http://www.idaho-democrats.org and read more about them.
