As a resident of Boston, and, indeed, a concerned citizen, I've been following the MA-Sen race about as closely as anybody could.
After phone banking last night for Coakley, I've come to the conclusion that it's over, and has been for about a week.
Read below the fold to find out why.
I have been doing my best to stay positive. As the trend clearly showed Coakley's support collapsing, I clung to things like the Research 2000 poll as a sign of hope. I postulated that the weather might help by keeping independents home, while also not adversely effecting city voters. I thought that maybe the upward trend for Brown's negatives might give Coakley just enough to put her over the top. And, of course, I counted on Obama's visit to save the day.
But none of that is going to happen. Coakley lost this race about a week ago. That's when two big things happened.
First, she started heavy robo calling. By heavy, I mean hundreds of thousands of calls. Normally, that's a good thing. The problem here is that there was horrible coordination between the various organizations doing the calling. The result was that many crucial voters have been getting calls 5 TIMES A DAY.
Second, the negative campaigning only succeeded in decreasing her support from independents. While MA is undoubtedly a Blue State, the majority of voters are I, not D or R. Negative campaigning might energize a base, but it only seems to have alienated a massive voting block for Coakley.
I came to these conclusions last night after 3 hours of phone banking. EVERY single person I talked to (probably made 350 calls) said that had received dozens of calls over the past week, with many getting 5 or more Monday alone. A large percentage of those people actually said they've decided to change their vote (to Brown or Kennedy) or just not vote at all because of the calls. In addition, a majority of the independents I talked to said that Coakley's ads were disgusting and changed their minds about voting for her.
So a combination of panicky last minute negative campaigning and poorly organized phone lists ended it for Coakley.
My prediction for the race is a high single digit loss. Something like 54 to 45, Brown.
And so it goes. Obama had roughly 4 months of semi-majority rule, and we wasted it negotiating with the GOP.
