There are few things one can take solace in when you're on the losing end of a wave election. One of the few items of comfort is in knowing that wave elections tend to create golden opportunities for the next time around.
The rationale for this is rather simple to understand. Wave elections tend to energize the out party's turnout, while simultaneously suppressing the incumbent party's fervor for the election. Thus, the electorate that shows up this time is highly unlikely to reflect the electorate the next time around. Assuming a more normalized general election turnout the next time around, those candidates who squeaked by in the wave are far more likely to get sucked into the undertow two years from now.
Without question, the recently concluded midterms gave us an exceptionally large freshman class composed almost entirely of Republicans. That, of course, is the bad news. The good news? If the Democrats can resurrect their brand name a bit, and get their voters back to the polls, a number of those GOP freshmen are bound to be one-termers.
What follows is the lowest hanging fruit: six Republicans who will (in all likelihood) take the oath of office in about six weeks. All of them, assuming that their districts are not substantially buttressed in redsitricting, should be at the head of the DCCC target list when the 2012 cycle kicks off.
(If...you know...it hasn't already...)
1. Blake Farenthold (Texas-27)
It isn't hard to make the case that Farenthold, who appears to have dispatched longtime Democratic incumbent Solomon Ortiz in this South Texas district, represented THE upset of 2010. It also isn't hard to make the case that Farenthold shouldn't sign any long-term leases in the DC area. Farenthold barely won in a great GOP year (a margin of about 800 votes). Furthermore, the key architect of his victory was the relative paucity of Hispanic voters in this majority-minority district. Turnout here was just 58% of what it was in 2008, which was well below the average nationwide. Assuming those Dem-leaning Hispanic voters return in a presidential election year, it is hard to see a scenario, short of a totally unacceptable Democratic nominee, where Farenthold stays afloat. Bear in mind that this district is not, per se, a liberal district. Bush won here in 2004, and Obama only carried the district by seven points in 2008. But Farenthold has some real flaws as a candidate, and while the Democratic bench here got hammered here two weeks ago, there are still plenty of viable candidates.
2. Allen West (Florida-22)
Florida was a place where the enthusiasm gap was a very real thing. But any Democratic enthusiasm gap in the 22nd district might be muted by the antics of West. In a freshman class rife with extremists, West might top the list. Exhibit A came before the election results were even finalized, as West endeavored to hire a Chief of Staff whose experience for the job was as a flame-throwing right wing talk radio host. That might work in the uber-red Florida 1st district, but it is hard to see that playing well in a district carried (albeit by single digit margins) by Al Gore, John Kerry, and Barack Obama.
3. Robert Dold (Illinois-10)
The Land of Lincoln was a killing field for the Democrats on Election Day, as the party surrendered a Senate seat and five House seats. Others might make an argument for Joe Walsh (who appears to have barely won) or Bobby Schilling (who won in the reliably Dem-held 17th district) as better targets than Dold. But despite the fact that Dold represents a district that has been held by a Republican for decades, the numbers imply that he is a better bet to lose in November, 2012. This district has actually performed MORE Democratic at the presidential level than either the 8th or the 17th district. And, in 2012, native son and Democrat Barack Obama will lead the ticket, instead of Republican (and 10th district native) Mark Kirk. Aside from all that, Dold (a teabagger fave) would seem to be an ill ideological fit for a district that seems inclined to support moderate Republicans (or ones that can fake it well).
4. Renee Ellmers (North Carolina-02)
Assuming that a recount doesn't change the calculus in this race, Republican Renee Ellmers will prevail over longtime Democratic incumbent Bob Ethridge by around 1600 votes. The electorate in 2012 is bound to be quite different than 2010. For one thing, the African-American vote made up only 21% of early voting in 2010, as opposed to 27% in 2008. In a district like the 2nd district, where nearly 30% of the residents are African-American, that six percent turnout shift could be huge. Clearly, a lot of Democrats stayed home--the turnout here was only 65% of the 2008 Congressional turnout here. Ellmers also has a penchant for unforced errors, which is why she landed on Jeremy Jacobs' list of the five Republican freshmen that aren't "ready for prime time."
5. Charlie Bass (New Hampshire-02)
It is practically inconceivable that 2012 could be as awful for Democrats in the Granite State as 2010 was for them. They lost both of their seats in the House, they lost what was once considered a winnable Senate race (and by 23 points, no less), and they lost a couple of thousand state legislative seats (only a slight exaggeration, since each block in the state seems to have its own legislative representative). Their sole saving grace was an eight-point win for Governor John Lynch, who had won with better than 70% of the vote in his previous two bids for office. Despite the mother of all red tsunamis in New Hampshire, former Congressman Charlie Bass barely returned to Washington, clinging to a 3600-vote win over Ann McLane Kuster. Given the bludgeoning that Democrats experienced across the state, it was quite an underwhelming result for Bass, who served in the House from 1995-2007. One hopes Kuster comes back to fight this battle anew in what would have to be a more favorable climate for Dems here.
6. Tim Walberg (Michigan-07)
Michigan, like New Hampshire, was all kinds of ugly for the Democrats a few weeks ago. Walberg's re-entry to the House, however, could be temporary if Democrats can find a way to recreate their 2008 magic in Michigan. The 7th district shifted dramatically between 2004 and 2008: what was a GOP +9 district with George W. Bush became a Dem +5 district in 2008. That might have had a lot to do with the well-publicized abandonment of the state by John McCain in 2008, of course. But Walberg has never had it easy here, and it is hard to imagine him ever cruising in a district as divided as this one. That is especially true, given how far to the right Walberg is. He acts like he represents a solid-red district, rather than one that could accurately be described as a swing district.
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There are certainly other potential prospects (or suspects, as it were). One could make a pretty compelling case for the vulnerability of Chip Cravaack in Minnesota, for example, or Jon Runyan in New Jersey. The GOP cleaned up in upstate New York and Pennsylvania. Can all of those new Republicans survive their first re-election bid?
Feel free to lay out your case for other potential 2012 targets in the comments.