While Tuesday's elections made the next two years a lot more difficult, and without doubt ended some political careers we'd rather have seen continue, one loss -- or even more -- doesn't have to mean the end. Witness:
In 1964, the Republican Party viewed unabashedly liberal, pro-integration Texas Democrat Ralph Yarborough as public enemy Number One in the upcoming Senate elections. The party identified a 40-year-old Houston oil millionaire as its desired candidate. In any other year, he would have made an outstanding Senate candidate; he had money, hailed from a political family (his father was a U.S. Senator from Connecticut), he was a World War II hero, and as an affluent suburban conservative he represented exactly the kind of voters, donors and candidates that would ultimately carry the Texas Republican Party to dominance. Unfortunately, this was 1964, and Texas native son Lyndon Johnson was running for reelection against a candidate widely considered too conservative for even Texas, Barry Goldwater of Arizona. Yarborough relentlessly tarred his Republican opponent as even further right than Goldwater, and trounced him with 56 percent of the vote. Undaunted, George H.W. Bush would go on to serve in Congress, as national party chair, UN ambassador, CIA director, vice president and ultimately the 41st President of the United States.
In 1972, a young, handsome (in a certain, square way), and media-savvy Vietnam hero with a Yale degree and a national reputation for his opposition to the war returned home to Massachusetts to run for Congress, in a Democratic-leaning district held by a retiring Republican. He was praised as a future political superstar and looked like a sure winner after finishing first in a 10-way Democratic primary, but the political tide was strong against the Democrats that year; even though Massachusetts was the only state to cast its votes for George McGovern that year, the margin was close enough that the much-ballyhooed rising star went down to defeat in Massachusetts. Undaunted, John Kerry went back to law school, became a prosecutor, and ultimately staged come-from-behind wins for lieutenant governor, U.S. Senate, and eventually the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2004.
Democrats were cut down all over the map in 1980 thanks to the Reagan landslide, but one of the most painful losses was that of the Governor of Arkansas, a baby-faced 34-year-old recognized nationally as a political prodigy. A Rhodes Scholar and Yale Law School graduate, he had nearly captured Arkansas’ only reliably Republican House seat in 1974 at the age of 28, and subsequently used his name recognition to mount successful campaigns for Attorney General in 1976 and Governor in 1978. After his unexpected and devastating loss in 1980 amid the Reagan wave, some believed his meteoric political rise was over. However, Bill Clinton came back to win the governorship again in 1982, and would hold it until he was elected the 42nd President of the United States ten years later.
So clearly, it's worth thinking which candidates who lost last week might still have bright political futures. Most of these people will never be presidents or even presidential candidates. Still, the futures of these Democrats bear discussing -- whether they are progressive fighters or perpetual thorns in our sides. Russ Feingold, for instance, has already said he's looking to 2012 (and, inevitably, had to beat back semi-malicious speculation he plans to primary President Obama). In some cases, the future is a lot more hypothetical. And in some cases, there's a healthy debate to be had about whether it's better to have a more conservative Dem or the particularly horrible Republican that is generally the alternative in some districts and states.
With that in mind, here are some Democrats who could win -- something, sometime -- and possibly play a role in rebuilding the party. Some I like, some not so much, but they're all names to remember.
Joe Sestak, Pennsylvania. Whether he wants his old seat back, wants to be Governor, or wants to take another shot at the U.S. Senate, Joe Sestak would likely make a very strong candidate in an open year. Though his campaigns have seldom fit the establishment profile, he has routinely outperformed expectations -- including first in the primary against Arlen Specter and then the extremely close general election this year. Given his strong performance in Delaware County in 2010, his old seat in PA-07 (now held by Republican Pat Meehan) is probably his if he wants it back.
Ann McLane Kuster, New Hampshire. In a catastrophic year for Democrats in New Hampshire, Kuster lost by just one point to former six-term Congressman Charlie Bass. Kuster ran one of the best campaigns in the country both strategically and on the issues, and in an even slightly better year, she can beat Bass, who will have to walk a tough line between being teabagged and reminding his constituents he's no moderate.
Patrick Murphy, Pennsylvania. Murphy, a former netroots candidate and two-term Congressman, was considered the golden boy of Pennsylvania Democratic politics, and his loss broke a lot of hearts on election day. Still only 36, Murphy can probably run for any office he wants in Pennsylvania; one possibility is the Attorney General’s seat soon to be vacated by Republican Governor-elect Tom Corbett.
Tom Perriello, Virginia. He lost by just 4 points in a Democratic Armageddon. Democrats have a share of redistricting (they hold the Virginia Senate) so this district might get better. If it doesn’t, he might win anyway...and whether he runs for Congress again or not, he would make an excellent candidate for Governor of Virginia in 2013.
Dan Maffei, New York. Maffei wildly outperformed expectations in 2006 when he nearly toppled Republican Rep. Jim Walsh, and subsequently cruised to victory in 2008. His loss this year was a fluke, and he should be able to come back strong.
Bryan Lentz, Pennsylvania. Lentz lost his race running for Joe Sestak’s old seat. If Sestak doesn’t try to reclaim his seat, Pennsylvania Democrats could do worse than to nominate Lentz again. His fundraising was not the strongest in 2010 (though it wasn’t shameful, either), but Lentz proved to be a tough, aggressive, and intelligent campaigner who may well have won in a better year.
Scott Murphy, New York. Murphy has proven he can win tough races, having won a 2009 special election few thought he could win. Redistricting may well make NY-20 more Democratic, particularly if it takes in part of Albany. If so, Murphy could possibly beat Chris Gibson in a rematch.
John Hall, New York. See above; Hall surprised everyone when he won NY-19 in 2006, and his loss in 2010 was close enough that he should strongly consider running again, particularly if he’s given favorable redistricting.
Ami Bera, California. Bera held Dan Lungren to 50% in a great year for Republicans. In a better year for Democrats Bera could have won this race, and may yet some day.
Ron Klein, Florida. Crazypants Republican Allen West is a one-termer. Klein can and will defeat him if he runs again.
Joe Garcia, Florida. Garcia’s campaign was highly praised, but he has now lost two in a row. He should certainly run for something again, but he’s got to win his next time out.
John Salazar, Colorado. The Western Slope isn’t the most Democratic friendly area in Colorado, but Salazar proved he can win CO-03 even in moderately tough years (like 2004). He lost by only four points this year, 50-46, against an opponent he thrashed in 2006. If he runs again, he probably has a good shot at winning.
Almost no one nationally knows who Caroline Fayard is, but that's about to change. Fayard was actually the top Democratic vote-getter statewide in Louisiana in 2010, winning 43% of the vote in her race for lieutenant governor, her first political run. That doesn’t sound like much, but it was 5 points better than U.S. Senate nominee Charlie Melancon, and her opponent (former Secretary of State Jay Dardenne) is one of the strongest Republicans in Louisiana. Fayard is young (just 32 years old), wealthy, attractive, and was quite successful for a first-time candidate, particularly given that she filed at the last minute to run in a Republican year in a Republican state. She certainly seems to have a future in Louisiana, a state with a decimated Democratic bench -– it’s possible she could run as early as this year for the now-open position of Louisiana Secretary of State.
Jocelyn Benson, Michigan. Benson is a law professor, a former investigative journalist, a graduate of Wellesley, Oxford, and Harvard Law School, and the losing candidate for Michigan Secretary of State in 2010. Benson is an election law expert and ran 2004 election protection efforts for the DNC. She ran a strong campaign in 2010 despite her loss, winning 47% of the vote, which was first among all statewide Democratic candidates.
Vincent Sheheen, South Carolina. Sheheen’s narrow four-point loss in the South Carolina Governor’s race (in what was supposed to be a virtual coronation for Republican Nikki Haley) was one of the biggest surprises of election night. 47% for a Democrat in South Carolina is no joke, and Sheheen won the Fifth District even as Democratic Rep. John Spratt lost by 10 points. Sheheen is only 39 years old, so he would seem to have a bright future in South Carolina politics either as a 2014 gubernatorial candidate or perhaps a candidate for SC-05, where Sheheen lives.
Cary Kennedy, Colorado. Kennedy, the outgoing Colorado State Treasurer, is well-liked by Colorado Democrats and at 42, with one statewide victory behind her, is in good position to stage a comeback some day.
Melissa Bean, IL-08. Redistricting could actually help her, plus she barely lost in a nightmarish Democratic year. Rep.-elect Joe Walsh is a certifiable lunatic, and is virtually guaranteed to be a one-termer.
Bill Foster, Illinois. One of the most reasonable Blue Dogs out there, his district is tough, but he’s performed quite well in his three runs for office and should seriously consider running again, especially if the district gets better courtesy of redistricting.
Baron Hill, Indiana. He should probably give up on IN-09, especially considering redistricting will be controlled by the GOP. However, Hill would make a pretty decent statewide candidate; he could run for Governor if Evan Bayh doesn’t (and let’s hope Bayh doesn’t), or for Senate (where Richard Lugar is unbeatable if he wins his primary, but could get taken down by a teabagger).
Mark Schauer, Michigan. Schauer lost by just five points, and is likely coming back to Congress if he wants to; the question is where the upcoming Michigan GOP gerrymander will leave his home of Battle Creek. He could present a strong challenge to pretty much any of the Republicans he could be pitted against (Mike Rogers, Tim Walberg, possibly Justin Amash or Fred Upton).
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, South Dakota. She is extremely tiresome in her centrism/conservatism, but it’s South Dakota. She’s been called a “rising star” ever since her 2004 election to Congress, and you have to suspect she’s not done with politics; the question is what her next move is (a rematch for SD-AL against Republican Kristi Noem, a run for Governor in 2014, or a run the same year for the Senate seat of likely retiree Tim Johnson).
What Dems lost narrowly -- or at least more narrowly than other Democratic candidates around them -- and might have a future in elected office after all? And which of them are worth having, from a progressive standpoint?
(Check out results for races here.)
