Last night, I posted a diary to introduce American readers to the British general election campaign that started officially yesterday. I couldn’t believe how many comments I got, which included very wise questions and some very insightful remarks. Maybe this idea of mine to follow the campaign to see if there are any lessons for the US system has some legs after all. Today, I want to finish up the background I think one needs to understand what’s going on – if you don’t know the rules, it’s hard to follow the game.
This diary will cover the political geography of the UK, what parts of the country vote which way. I will outline what the big issues are, but I will refrain from giving each party’s line on these issues. That will come later as each party will issue its manifesto (platform) next week, and we can get into some seriously policy wonk stuff then. Then, I have found a really useful site that will help us all follow the gazillion polls that are going to come out in the next 28 days. Lastly, there were questions yesterday about primaries, so I think it would be useful to walk everyone through just how a little boy or girl grows up to be Prime Minister.
For general geography of the UK by region visit here. For the traditional counties of England and Wales visit this page. Labour redrew boundaries, renamed some of these and simple abolished Rutland in the 1970s, but most people still think of themselves, for example, as living in Yorkshire, not Humberside.
Scotland’s counties are here, and Northern Ireland’s here.
OK, the political geography of the UK in a few quick words. As in America, cities tend to vote left, rural areas right. The southeast is largely better off than the north, and so the Conservatives’ stronghold is where the well-off live, especially the Home Counties (the counties around London) – you can drive from London to Bristol without crossing a Labour constituency. Labour does well in the north of England, Scotland and Wales where Tories are as thin on the ground as Karl Rove’s hair. The Liberal Democrats do well in the West Country (the cider-drinking southwest), Wales and Scotland. A good map for this is here. (Note: In the UK, Labour is red, Conservatives blue, Liberal Dems gold/yellow)
Britain’s versions of our swing states are located in the suburbs, market towns and the edges of the old industrial spots. This morning’s Times (and for our purposes, that will always mean Rupert Murdoch’s paper from London, and not the imposters in New York and LA) said that the election will be decided in a triangle from Blackpool to Leeds to Warwick. On our map, that means basically the Northwest, the West Midlands and the western bit of the East Midlands. The paper also said, "Lancashire could yet be our Florida. Yorkshire may be our Ohio. For Colorado or Indiana, read the ring roads of the West Midlands." A ring road is a freeway that circles a city, just like the Beltway does DC or the Perimeter does Atlanta.
On to the issues. Obviously, the economy is a big deal. The recovery in the UK is immeasurably weak. Taxes, deficits, spending etc. will be big. Immigration is another matter that will affect votes. The UK is not a society of immigrants like the US, so they view things differently.
Healthcare will also turn up as an issue. Here’s the twist for Yanks – everybody in UK politics back the single-payer National Health Service. Conservative leader David Cameron’s young disabled son Ivan died not too long ago, and Mr. Cameron has this to say about socialist medicine, "The NHS is on the ballot paper. They did amazing things for my family and I want the NHS to be there for everybody’s family." The debate here will be how to protect it and how to get more bang for the pound.
Education is another eternal topic of debate. There is a real sense in the UK that education just isn’t working as well as it should. Students now have to pay fees to go to university (when I was there, my British friends got government grants to get a degree!), and there aren’t enough places. Primary and secondary education have even bigger challenges.
Europe is always an odd issue for the UK. This strikes at the heart of Britain’s role in the world in the 21st century. Is the UK a European nation, an island unto itself related to Europe or what?
Corruption. Loads of Members of Parliament got caught in an expenses hassle lately and there is a sense that government is for sale in some quarters.
Constitutional issues. Will the UK get proportional representation? Will Scotland and Wales get more power to govern themselves? Will local government get more power?
There are more, like defense (which they spell with a "c") but we’ll get into those with the manifestos.
A really good website for understanding the polls is UK Polling Report and I recommend their interactive toy. Because the Brits use a first-past-the-post system (the most votes wins a seat even if that isn’t a majority), and because the Tories tend to concentrate their votes more than Labour or the LibDems, you can’t just assume 40% of the votes nationally gets you 40% of the seats. While this swing-calculator doesn’t adjust much for tactical voting in marginal seats as near as I can tell, it does help explain how the polls could translate in to parliamentary seats.
Lastly, how do you become prime minister? Well, it takes time. You probably start off in your 20s, maybe involved in student politics, or the youth wing of a party. You get noticed by the party establishment in your area, and maybe they nominate you to be a local councilor (sort of like a city council member in a US city, or a county legislator). Perhaps you win or at least run a good race. You impress the local and maybe national party. They give you the nomination to stand in a Parliamentary by-election (special election) where your party doesn’t have a hope of winning, and lose you do – you also get 3,000 more votes than they expected which makes you a high flier.
At the next general election, you get a shot at a winnable seat, and you pull it off. Now, as an MP, you have to serve with some kind of distinction on the back benches. Remember, you are one of hundreds of MPs. Toward the end of the parliament, or after successfully getting re-elected, the party decides you’re ready to be a junior minister (assistant secretary of a cabinet department in the US) if your party is governing, or junior spokesperson for some issue if out of government. A few years of success and you get made a member of cabinet if in government (or shadow cabinet if not). Probably not Foreign Secretary or Minister of Defense, but something less difficult like Minister of Culture and Sport, or Minister of Agriculture and Fisheries if you really have earned it.
Maybe there’s another election, and your guys lose. The party replaces the leader, and you back the new leader’s campaign to take over the party and you’re rewarded with the job of Shadow Home Secretary (the opposition spokesperson responsible for most domestic issues). A few years go by, and you get shifted to Defence. Your lot lose the next election, and you figure you are the one to lead the party and challenge the guy who lost the second election. You are successful and are now Leader of the Opposition. Now, all you have to do is win a general election and you’re Prime Minister. Easy, no?
As you cans see, you have to rise through the ranks. You don’t get to run a business to make millions, spend millions to become a Congressman and then just run for the top spot. Tony Blair entered Parliament in 1983, and it took him 11 years to become party leader, and this was rather quick. Lady Thatcher entered Parliament in 1959, became party leader in 1974 (15 years in the making) and became PM in 1979 (20 years to the top). Maybe that’s why their election campaigns are short – the politicians are already tired when they start. Naturally, the rise is easier in the smaller parties, but there hasn’t been a non-Tory or non-Labour PM since 1922 when Liberal David Lloyd George resigned as head of a coalition government, and the last Liberal to have a majority was Herbert Henry Asquith about 100 years ago. So to be PM, you really should be a Tory or a Labourite.
One quick update: yesterday I mentioned the deposit a candidate must put up in order to get his or her name on the ballot paper. The sum is £500 (US$763 as of today’s exchange rate). You get that back if you get 5% or more of the vote.
Once again, I’ve gone on too long.