The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the April Employment Situation Report today, which showed an Establishment Survey gain of 290,000 jobs, of which 66,000 were census hires. The Household Survey showed a gain of 550,000 jobs and a U-3 unemployment rate of 9.9%, which increased .2% from last month. The more inclusive U-6 unemployment rate (which includes discouraged workers and those working part-time for economic reasons) came in at 17.1% for an increase of .2%. Overall, this was another encouraging report that showed the economy is still slowly recovering from the collapse we saw in 2008/09 and coupled with the recent Q1 2010 GDP gain of 3.2% we will likely continue to see job gains for at least a few more months.
In other encouraging news, manufacturing created another 44,000 jobs last month, showing a very slow but steady recovery in that sector, which has the ability to continue should demand remain near current levels and productivity increases continue to slow down some as they have recently. The census hires in the report will place some negative pressure on future jobs reports when they end, but for now they will add an additional stimulus to the economy that hopefully will be less necessary when they do end.
An examination of the employment-population ratio (which is essentially a measure of the ratio of total employed to the population) shows that it stands at 58.8, which is still at an early 80s level when women were still entering the workforce in large numbers. The labor force participation rate also increased this month to 65.2%, as more discouraged workers continued to re-enter the workforce.
Looking at the seasonal adjustment for the Establishment Survey for April, this report came in with an adjustment of .032, which compares to a 5-year average of .031%. In other words the current adjustment was in line with past adjustments for April. The unadjusted Household Survey showed a job gain of 1,319,000 jobs and an unadjusted unemployment rate of 9.5%.
To look a little into where the unemployment rate is very high, we again have to focus on the 16-19 age demographic, who come in with an unemployment rate of 25.4% (and remember, these are only people who want jobs, not full-time students/etc.). That age demographic accounts for .7% of the overall unemployment rate.
Finally, I will update with the much maligned birth/death adjustment when it is released, but the 5 year average adjustment for April has been +276,000 jobs.
UPDATE: The birth/death adjustment is out and came in at +188,000 jobs in April. That is far less than the average adjustment and leaves us well into positive territory even for those who think the entire b/d adjustment is bogus.
