First off, I don’t want to sound overly optimistic, nor do I want to draw conclusions about public opinion that are not necessarily warranted. This is, after all, only the second poll in the history of national polling to show that the majority of Americans favor marriage equality. The first was a CNN poll (PDF) back in August, as I’m sure many of you remember, that showed that 52% of Americans support same-sex marriage while 46% oppose it. This one – an AP poll, as identified in my diary title – shows identical results (52-46 in favor of marriage equality). Check out the poll (PDF) for yourself.
A larger majority (58%) express support in the poll for equal government benefits as heterosexual married couples, while a smaller minority (38%) oppose equal benefits. Even more interestingly, the majority of those polled believe that the rights of everybody should be protected even if it means defying the majority (62%, with 35% believing that the majority should rule). Even more interesting than that is the fact that the poll shows that 56% of those polled believe that judges should interpret the laws “broadly, taking into account the broader interests of the nation” (41% of respondents hold the view that judges should take into account the intent of the lawmakers).
Here are some excerpts:
NCC10. Should couples of the same sex be entitled to the same government benefits as married couples of the opposite sex, or should the government distinguish between them?
58% – Yes, should be entitled to the same benefits
38% – No, should distinguish between them
3% – Don’t know
1% – Refused
NCC12. Should the Federal Government give legal recognition to marriages between couples of the same sex, or not?
52% – Yes
46% – No
2% – Don’t know
NCC4. And how about these, which do you agree with more?
35% – If a majority of people want something to happen, the rights of a few shouldn’t stand in the way
62% – The rights of everyone should be protected, even when that means saying no to something the majority of people want to happen.
2% – Don’t know
1% – Refused
NCC18. Which comes closest to your view?
41% – Judges should interpret the laws as narrowly as possible, taking into account only what is
clearly the intention of the lawmakers
56% – Judges should interpret laws broadly, taking into account the broader interests of the
nation
3% – Don’t know
As I mentioned at the beginning of my diary, I don’t want to get carried away. The sampling margin is +/-4.5%...it would probably be a little far-fetched to come right out and say that the majority of Americans support marriage equality. If the majority is there, it is a slim majority. It’s also possible that this poll, along with the August CNN poll, is an anomaly. What it shows, I think, is a general trend upward in favor of marriage equality.
What it also shows is that anti-gay conservatives can no longer claim that a clear majority of Americans oppose marriage equality. Further (and, in my mind, more interestingly), this poll shows that the whole “activist judges” argument – the argument used against judges from Judge Tauro to Judge Walker – probably doesn’t hold much water with the American people. The poll also shows that a clear majority of Americans do not support the “majority rules” argument of the supporters of Prop 8 in California, Question 1 in Maine, and other anti-gay constitutional amendments across the United States. Meaning that the anti-gay activists are on the wrong side of the American people in just about every way.
In short, the anti-equality forces are losing ground. We all know this, of course, because we can feel it in the air – but here is some statistical reinforcement.