In a trio of recent swing state polls, we see President Obama faring worse against Generic Republican than he does against actual Republicans. Fortunately for him, of course, no matter what happens in the GOP primary, he does indeed get to run against a flesh-and-blood opponent - and against those, he's doing pretty well so far. Let's begin in Pennsylvania:
Muhlenberg College for the Morning Call (2/9-28, registered voters, no trendlines):
Barack Obama (D-Inc): 37
Generic Republican: 33
Barack Obama (D-Inc): 43
Mitt Romney (R): 36
Barack Obama (D-Inc): 44
Mike Huckabee (R): 34
Barack Obama (D-Inc): 53
Sarah Palin (R): 25
(MoE: ±5.5%)
The four-point spread when paired against a generic foe, coupled with mediocre re-elect numbers (40% say yes, while 45% disagree), would seem to be a source of concern for Team Obama and the Democrats. But Obama's numbers against real-life candidates are quite a bit better. Mitt Romney can take solace in the fact that his margin is slightly narrower than what John McCain achieved in 2008, and Obama is still only in the mid-40s. Still, Obama comes out on top in all three potential matchups.
Other polling in key tossup states has echoed this theme. Consider PPP's latest poll out of the political hotbed of Wisconsin:
Public Policy Polling (2/24-27, Wisconsin voters, December 2010 in parentheses):
Barack Obama (D-Inc): 48 (46)
Mitt Romney (R): 38 (42)
Barack Obama (D-Inc): 48 (47)
Mike Huckabee (R): 41 (41)
Barack Obama (D-Inc): 51 (50)
Newt Gingrich (R): 39 (41)
Barack Obama (D-Inc): 54 (52)
Sarah Palin (R): 35 (38)
Barack Obama (D-Inc): 49
Paul Ryan (R): 40
(MoE: ±3.5%)
Here we have the benefit of trendlines, which show Obama doing marginally better than he did around ten weeks ago. We also have the benefit of seeing the favorabilities of his opponents. While President Obama's job approval in the state is soft (49/45), his opponents are (with the exception of native son Paul Ryan, who seems unlikely to make a bid) all underwater with net negative favorabilities.
The same holds true in Virginia, where the numbers are pretty similar:
Public Policy Polling (2/24-27, Virginia voters, November 2010 in parentheses):
Barack Obama (D-Inc): 48 (48)
Mitt Romney (R): 42 (43)
Barack Obama (D-Inc): 51 (49)
Mike Huckabee (R): 43 (44)
Barack Obama (D-Inc): 51 (52)
Newt Gingrich (R): 39 (41)
Barack Obama (D-Inc): 54 (51)
Sarah Palin (R): 35 (40)
(MoE: ±3.5%)
Taken together, these three recent data points paint a consistent picture. While President Obama's political mojo has not been entirely resuscitated, he is the undisputed beneficiary of a GOP field that is known, yet unloved.
Worth noting: the larger pool of respondents in the Muhlenberg poll split evenly between Republican and Democratic identification. This is a pretty sizeable departure from 2008, when Democrats enjoyed a seven-point voter ID edge. Even in a disastrous climate in 2010, the Democrats enjoyed a three-point voter ID edge.
Furthermore, both PPP polls had samples which showed 2008 vote preferences that were actually closer than President Obama's margins of victory three years ago. Therefore, none of these three polls can reasonably be dismissed as the result of wishful thinking regarding the makeup of the 2012 electorate.
