GDP grew at an annual rate of just 1.8% in the first quarter of 2011, much slower than the 3.1% in the fourth quarter of 2010 or the 2.6% growth in the quarter before that. At the same time, unemployment claims have increased to 429,000, above the 399,000 mark that is usually associated with steady job creation.
This Friday, the non-farm payroll jobs numbers will come out. It is expected that that number will be around 190,000. I wouldnt be surprised if that number came out much lower than that.
Part of the problem is that gas and commodity prices are rising and slowing economic growth. It has been pointed out that every recession but one(the mild 1960-1961 recession) has been preceeded by a large increase in oil prices.
Most economic forecasters, including the federal reserve, foreshadow a pickup in economic growth in the latter part of 2011. However, the same thing was said in 2008 when economic growth collapsed by over 4% in the latter part of the year.
We probably wont have a double dip, but I expect economic growth to remain around 2%-2.5% for the of the year. Job creation will probably slow from around 200,000 a month to closer to 100,000 a month, which isnt enough to lower the unemployment rate further.