This was inspired by Rupper’s excellent diary Cultural Regions of Maryland.
How do the suburbs in the northeast vote? You’re probably thinking “Democratic” or “leans Democratic”. Well not all northeastern suburbs vote the same. By northeastern suburbs, I am referring only to the area from Northern Virginia to Western Connecticut. I would break down the northeastern suburbs into 4 categories. These categories are sub-regions that are present in every state in the northeast corridor. In fact most counties in the corridor have more than one of these regions in them, so it is hard to analyze on a county level, it may need to be analyzed on a township level.
First is the creative class suburbs. Think northern VA, Montgomery and Howard Co MD, Montgomery Co PA, Mercer and Middlesex Co NJ. These places are well educated, affluent, and liberal. The population has a white majority and a large Asian minority. Democratic performance in this region gets better every election. If only the rest of the country could vote like this. Politicians who exemplify this region include Rush Holt, Jim Himes, Allyson Schwartz, and Chris Van Hollen.
The next region is the Republican exurbs. Think Carroll Co MD and Morris Co NJ. It’s as affluent and well-educated as the creative class region, but it’s as Republican as the former is Democratic. As Rupper said, conservative and proud of it. For some reason there are a lot of very Republican suburbs around New York and Baltimore, but not Philadelphia and Washington (unless you count Lancaster County). This region is personified by Andy Harris, Bob Ehrlich, Chris Christie, and Scott Garrett. It is enough of a voting force to make the state of New Jersey more competitive than it should be.
The third region is the black suburbs. This region is a major force in Maryland, covering Prince George’s County and some of western Baltimore County. There are fewer black suburbs in the other states, but they include Darby, PA; Hillside, NJ; and Mount Vernon, NY. They vote as solidly Democratic as black voters in the cities, and they also vote in higher numbers.
The fourth region, and the subject of this article, is what I would call the traditional suburbs. This region includes most of Bucks County PA, Long Island NY, and large amounts of New Jersey including significant parts of Bergen Co and Monmouth Co. These are the first-ring suburbs. They were fully built out by the 1950s, and they were originally very Republican. Over time they became more Democratic, but they never got very Democratic. And they are susceptible to Republican waves. I will also add southeast Baltimore County to this category. Even though it is historically Democratic rather than Republican, it has converged to have similar voting patterns as the others.
The traditional suburbs region is mostly white. It is heavily Italian, and also has lots of Irish and other white ethnic groups. Some of these suburbs, especially in North Jersey, are becoming increasingly Hispanic. It is heavily Catholic, and probably majority pro-life. The Clinton vs Obama primary distinguishes this region from the other regions. The creative class suburbs and black suburbs supported Obama, while the traditional suburbs and the few Democrats in the Republican suburbs supported Clinton.
Al Gore in 2000 was the high water mark for Democratic performance in the traditional suburbs. Since then, Democratic performance in this region seems to be declining. This region voted about 57% Gore, 52% Kerry, and 54% Obama. In 2009 it went strongly for Christie and in 2010 it defeated Patrick Murphy and Mike McMahon, nearly defeated Tim Bishop, and Rush Holt and Frank Pallone lost the eastern part of their respective districts. Democrats need to get this region back or else Republicans will be competitive in a part of the country where they shouldn’t be.
So why did this region trend away from Democrats after 2000? One hypothesis is 9/11. 9/11 was traumatic, it was close to home, and for a long time afterward George Bush and the Republicans were perceived as heroes keeping us safe while Democrats were weak appeasers who couldn’t be trusted with national security. However if it were just 9/11 then this region should move back to the Democrats over time as 9/11 becomes a more distant memory. If 9/11 got them to turn Republican then the Zadroga Bill could make them turn Democratic.
Most legislative and congressional districts in the traditional suburbs combine traditional suburbs with other types of suburbs or cities. For example Hamilton, NJ is certainly a traditional suburb. In the 1950s it was a fast-growing suburb of Trenton but by now it is fully built out. NJ’s 14th legislative district combines Hamilton with creative class suburbs to the north, and it is represented by Democrats. NJ’s 4th congressional district combines Hamilton with Republican exurbs to the east and it is represented by a Republican. The few legislative and congressional districts that are entirely traditional suburbs mostly vote for their traditional party. In Long Island it’s Republicans and in southeast Baltimore County it’s Democrats.
Case Study: Monmouth County
Monmouth County, NJ contains a mix of traditional suburbs and Republican exurbs. In 2000 Gore won Monmouth County 50-46, it was as Democratic as Washington. In 2008 Obama lost 47-51, it was as Republican as Georgia. The county is split between 3 congressional districts. The most Democratic part of Monmouth (the northern and eastern coast) is given to Frank Pallone. The middle part of Monmouth is given to Rush Holt. The most Republican part of Monmouth is given to Chris Smith. In 2008 Obama won only 53% of the Pallone part, 45% of the Holt part, and 41% of the Smith part. Meanwhile it still split the ticket and gave healthy reelect margins to Pallone and Holt. In 2010 Pallone won 46% of the Monmouth part of his district. This was the first time in his 22 year career that he lost Monmouth County. Holt won 40% of his district, giving him an uncomfortably close 53% total vote in his district; he is used to getting over 60%. In my redistricting proposal I advocate giving Pallone more of Monmouth County. I consider it an almost-safe Democratic district, but I’m aware that if the bottom falls out for Democrats in Monmouth County then my proposed 6th district could go Republican.
So what’s at stake?
Maryland: Maryland is so Democratic it doesn’t matter if Democrats lose ground in southeast Baltimore County and northern Anne Arundel County because the rest of Maryland’s suburbs are among the most Democratic suburbs in America.
Pennsylvania: Democrats are already losing ground in Western PA. They can’t afford to lose Bucks County too. Also losing Patrick Murphy really sucked.
New Jersey: New Jersey is the most densely populated state, so it should be as Democratic as Wyoming is Republican. But it is only 4% more Democratic than the whole country. Democrats represent only 7 of 13 Congressional Districts and 24 of 40 Legislative Districts.
New York: Republicans are still competitive at the state and national level in Long Island, Staten Island, and southern Brooklyn. Democrats can’t get elected to the State Senate in Long Island, and they will have to if they want to take the State Senate. This area, even if not enough to swing New York, is 5 or 6 Congressional Districts.
So how do Democrats improve in the traditional suburbs? Perhaps by getting them to want the same things their creative class neighbors want, such as good public schools that are worth paying for. Perhaps an influx of young professionals and Asian and Hispanic immigrants will bring new life into this region. I wish I had the answers. All I know is the Northeast should be Democratic, but this large section of the Northeast has been slipping away from the Democrats over the last 10 years, and Democrats are in danger of losing it.