There's some intriguing new polling data out today from Politico-GWU Battleground, a consortium of Celinda Lake (D) and Tarrance Group (R) polling firms. (The polling data can be found here, including this .pdf for complete results, MoE +/- 3.1)
On the subject of Obama, I noted on Sunday that he's had a good couple of weeks. The polling backs that up.
Republicans looking toward 2012 have consistently argued that the president’s reelection hinges on the economy — regardless of who emerges from the GOP field. That thesis is backed by the 15 percentage-point spread — 42 percent to 57 percent — between those polled who approve and disapprove of Obama’s handling of the economy.
But the president seems — at least for now — surprisingly immune to economic fears, the poll shows. Fifty-two percent of those surveyed approve of Obama’s handling of his job, up 7 percentage points from the most recent Battleground Poll, conducted in October. Additionally, 72 percent approve of Obama personally, up 7 percentage points since October.
The president’s strong approval ratings are buttressed by the 59 percent who said they will either “definitely” vote for the president or “consider” reelecting him. Thirty-eight percent “definitely will not” vote for the president’s reelection — giving Obama a higher ceiling of support than his Republican rivals would hope to see.
Enjoyably, Politico has the D and R pollster giving separate analysis. While
Ed Goeas (R), from Tarrance, properly notes how crucial the economy is,
Celinda Lake (D) notes this trend:
The Democrats lead in the generic Congressional ballot by a single point, 42% to 41%, with 16% undecided—well within the survey’s margin of error. And yet the trend is unmistakable, as this represents a six-point turnaround from the Battleground survey of late October 2010, where voters supported Republicans by a five-point margin, 47% to 42%. In addition, intensity of support favors the Democrats as well, with 39% supporting a generic Democrat strongly and 37% supporting a generic Republican strongly; also a noticeable shift from last cycle when an enthusiasm gap dogged the Democrats. Now, key swing subgroups of the electorate are veering away from the Republicans. Voters in the Midwest went from R+6 in October to D+8 today. Independents, who were R+14 in our October survey and whom Republicans won nationwide by 19 points in the previous election, now support a generic Republican by just three points. Voters age 35-44 were R+8 and are now D+20. Non-college educated men have gone from supporting the Republicans by 15 points to supporting them by just eight points. Republicans are losing ground among seniors as well and fail to win majority support among them today. Seniors were R+17 in our October survey and R+21 on Election Day and are now R+10. Democrats will still need to work to get their voters out to vote. There remains an intensity gap with 80% of Republicans extremely likely to vote compared to 74% of Democrats including only 53% of young voters, 60% of Latino voters, and 61% among single voters.
There is a lot of time between now and 2012, of course, but as of now the Democrats are in competitive position in Congress and ahead for the WH. Of course, the Congressional Democrats would do even better if they didn't keep trying to be Republicans and made sure the country understood what they stood for and how it differs from Paul Ryan and the GOP. It might help to be seen as being for jobs and Social Security, and let the GOP be seen as the Grinch party of austerity and l"et 'em eat cake". They'd better hope Obama has coattails and try not to distance themselves too much - that would be a recipe for disaster they are not incapable of instituting (see 2010.)
While Obama is in good shape. 2012 lines up as a political final to see if the Congressional Democrats have learned anything in their civics and politics class.
