Today's rare "Public Severe Weather Outlook" forecast by the Storm Prediction Center states that:
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0419 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
...TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS AND OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...
Yes, it is happening again, in much the same area.
Anybody in the affected areas should take every precaution to follow their local weather closely, and have a plan to protect themselves and others.
(I am putting this up quickly because I haven't seen anything yet from the usual 'WX heroes' who will surely be here with much more extensive info, as I'm limited by dialup, only one very scary forecast graphic included, the photobucket process is excruciating)
This is an extremely serious condition, affecting the same areas hit Sunday and more. Please warn anyone you know in these areas ASAP.
The areas designated "High" or "Moderate" are most at risk for very dangerous conditions, but the areas outlined in green or brown also have some risk.
Public Severe Weather Outlook
Print Version
Experimental Multimedia Briefing MP4.
Please note this briefing may be out of date 5 hours after its issuance (1359 UTC on 05/24/2011) and there will be no subsequent updates during the day.
Please send comments or questions to spc.feedback@noaa.gov or using the feedback page.
ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 241656
ARZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-250200-
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
...INTENSE TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES...VERY LARGE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS AND OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTH TEXAS
ELSEWHERE...SURROUNDING THE AREA OF GREATEST RISK...SEVERE STORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
STATES.
A STRONG JET STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT.
AS THIS OCCURS...AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE
NORTHEAST FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS EAST OF THE LOW WILL
TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND OZARKS...BENEATH UNUSUALLY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN THE JET STREAM.
SCATTERED INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN AN ARC FROM CENTRAL KANSAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTH TEXAS AS DAYTIME HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZES THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LOW. DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR A RISK OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LONG-TRACK STRONG
TO VIOLENT TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL AS THEY MOVE / DEVELOP
GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS...
OKLAHOMA...AND NORTH TEXAS.
THE STORMS LIKELY WILL ORGANIZE INTO AN EXTENSIVE BAND THIS
EVENING...EXTENDING THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND A
FEW TORNADOES EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY
VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO
REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO
RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE
WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
..HART.. 05/24/2011
$$
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0925
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX...WRN AND CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 241718Z - 241845Z
STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN OK AND NW TX OVER THE NEXT
HOUR. SUPERCELLS SHOULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADOES. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED BY 18Z.
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 997 MB LOW IN THE NRN TX PANHANDLE WITH A
DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS FAR WRN OK INTO WEST TX.
THE DRYLINE IS STARTING TO ADVANCE EWD WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING AN EXPANDING FIELD OF CUMULUS FROM I-40 IN WRN OK
SWD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO IN WCNTRL TX. AS FURTHER DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CAP WEAKENS...RAPID CELL INITIATION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. AS THIS OCCURS...A 50 TO 65
KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTING NEWD TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS WILL CREATE
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. AS
STORMS INTENSIFY...VERY LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER
WILL BECOME LIKELY. IN ADDITION...A 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS IN
PLACE ACROSS NW TX AND WRN OK. AS THIS FEATURE
STRENGTHENS...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES. WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES INCREASING INTO THE
450 TO 600 M2/S2 RANGE...LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
..BROYLES.. 05/24/2011
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...