Brian Wingfield, of Bloomberg News reports that General Electric says the cost of solar cells has fallen 21% so far this year, and predicts the cost of Solar electrical generation may be cheaper than fossil fuels or nuclear reactors in three to five years.
http://www.bloomberg.com/...
Solar power may be cheaper than electricity generated by fossil fuels and nuclear reactors within three to five years because of innovations, said Mark M. Little, the global research director for General Electric Co. (GE)
“If we can get solar at 15 cents a kilowatt-hour or lower, which I’m hopeful that we will do, you’re going to have a lot of people that are going to want to have solar at home,” Little said yesterday in an interview in Bloomberg’s Washington office. The 2009 average U.S. retail rate per kilowatt-hour for electricity ranges from 6.1 cents in Wyoming to 18.1 cents in Connecticut, according to Energy Information Administration data released in April.
Because GE, is talking about the free market price for the installer, or owner-operators, rather than for full life-cycle, whole systems cost to society, these cost comparisions exclude the external costs, of managing radioactive wastes, liability caps, environmental costs, such as CO2 production, and global warming, and the hidden "risk-premium" to society of a Fukushima like accident. So, I suspect means solar is probably already cheaper than nuclear, and coal from our total economic and social system viewpoint.
The combination of increased efficiency and lower cost, combined with environmental, and safety concerns about fossil fuel, and nuclear reactor electrical production is causing a growing boom in purchases of thin-film solar panels, throughout the world.
GE, based in Fairfield, Connecticut, announced in April that it had boosted the efficiency of thin-film solar panels to a record 12.8 percent. Improving efficiency, or the amount of sunlight converted to electricity, would help reduce the costs without relying on subsidies.
The thin-film panels will be manufactured at a plant that GE intends to open in 2013. The company said in April that the factory will have about 400 employees and make enough panels each year to power about 80,000 homes.
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Installations may increase by as much as 50 percent in 2011, worth about $140 billion, as cheaper panels and thin film make developers less dependent on government subsidies, Bloomberg New Energy Finance forecast.
Solar costs are falling rapidly due to innovation and economies of scale. An extraordinary 21% so far this year, and we are not even to June yet.
The cost of solar cells, the main component in standard panels, has fallen 21 percent so far this year, and the cost of solar power is now about the same as the rate utilities charge for conventional power in the sunniest parts of California, Italy and Turkey, the London-based research company said.
Most solar panels use silicon-based photovoltaic cells to transform sunlight into electricity. The thin-film versions, made of glass or other material coated with cadmium telluride or copper indium gallium selenide alloys, account for about 15 percent of the $28 billion in worldwide solar-panel sales.
Smart Grids
GE's Little also explains GE's product plans for the Smart Grids that our own Jamess tells us could be six times more efficient with combined with High Voltage Direct Current long-line transmission. Little says that while these will take many years to develop they will also contribute to our transition to renewable energy, efficiency, and conservation.
GE also is planning significant new investments in it's refrigeration, and lighting divisions to encourage conservation and greater efficiency.
A complete smart grid would consist of millions of next- generation meters installed in businesses and homes, appliances that adjust their energy use when prices change, and advanced software to help utilities control electricity flows, he said."
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GE this year plans to introduce the “Nucleus,” a device that will let consumers track their household electricity use with personal computers and smart phones. Utilities need to have incentives to put in place devices that save energy, and Congress needs to provide greater certainty on tax policy surrounding renewable energy, Little said.
I'm wondering if now that General Electric sees such potential profits in solar, and conservation, if they may help us encourage more federal support for investments in these areas.
For example, President Obama's 2012 budget includes a $36 billion subsidy in the form of federal loan guarentees to restart the nuclear industry. Based on this new data, would it not make sense to change this federal assistence to be applicable for solar, wind, tidal, geothermal, and any other renewable, energy investment?
As, on of the largest manufacturers, and builders of nuclear reactors, maybe GE would be just as happy to take these subsidies, in other division more compatable with our common good, and safe, clean energy production.
Profit, is profit, afterall. Now that clean, renewable, alternative energy production is beginning to look more profitable for mainstream business interest, or transformation to sustainable energy sources should acclerate quickly.